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In this paper, the prediction capabilities of recurrent neural networks are assessed in the low-order model of near-wall turbulence by Moehlis {\it et al.} (New J. Phys. {\bf 6}, 56, 2004). Our results show that it is possible to obtain…

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-21 Leonard Mushunje , Maxwell Mashasha , Edina Chandiwana

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Ali Mehrban , Pegah Ahadian

Financial order flow exhibits a remarkable level of persistence, wherein buy (sell) trades are often followed by subsequent buy (sell) trades over extended periods. This persistence can be attributed to the division and gradual execution of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-06 Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki , Fabrizio Lillo , Piero Mazzarisi

Reduced-order models based on physics are a popular choice in cardiovascular modeling due to their efficiency, but they may experience reduced accuracy when working with anatomies that contain numerous junctions or pathological conditions.…

This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs being…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-20 Shuaiqiang Liu , Cornelis W. Oosterlee , Sander M. Bohte

Predicting volatility is important for asset predicting, option pricing and hedging strategies because it cannot be directly observed in the financial market. The Black-Scholes option pricing model is one of the most widely used models by…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-01 Soohan Kim , Seok-Bae Yun , Hyeong-Ohk Bae , Muhyun Lee , Youngjoon Hong

This paper investigates real-time detection of spoofing activity in limit order books, focusing on cryptocurrency centralized exchanges. We first introduce novel order flow variables based on multi-scale Hawkes processes that account both…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-23 Timothée Fabre , Damien Challet

This paper shows a novel machine learning model for realized volatility (RV) prediction using a normalizing flow, an invertible neural network. Since RV is known to be skewed and have a fat tail, previous methods transform RV into values…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Xin Du , Kai Moriyama , Kumiko Tanaka-Ishii

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Grégory Bournassenko

Recent work has shown that machine-learned predictions can provably improve the performance of classic algorithms. In this work, we propose the first minimum-cost network flow algorithm augmented with a dual prediction. Our method is based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Zhiyang Chen , Hailong Yao , Xia Yin

Training of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) on long video sequences is computationally expensive due to the substantial memory requirements and the massive number of parameters that deep architectures demand. Early fusion of video…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Jue Wang , Anoop Cherian , Fatih Porikli

Bitcoin, one of the major cryptocurrencies, presents great opportunities and challenges with its tremendous potential returns accompanying high risks. The high volatility of Bitcoin and the complex factors affecting them make the study of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-04 Qiutong Guo , Shun Lei , Qing Ye , Zhiyang Fang

Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-17 Edson Pindza , Jules Clement Mba , Sutene Mwambi , Nneka Umeorah

Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that is gaining more popularity in recent years. Previous studies have shown that closing price alone is not enough to forecast stock market series. We introduce a new set of time series and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Stefano Sossi-Rojas , Gissel Velarde , Damian Zieba

This paper introduces a unique and valuable research design aimed at analyzing Bitcoin price volatility. To achieve this, a range of models from the Markov Switching-GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility (SARV) model classes are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-12 Dennis Koch , Vahidin Jeleskovic , Zahid I. Younas

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-11 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

We show Bitcoin implied volatility on a 5 minute time horizon is modestly predictable from price, volatility momentum and alternative data including sentiment and engagement. Lagged Bitcoin index price and volatility movements contribute to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-30 Faizaan Pervaiz , Christopher Goh , Ashley Pennington , Samuel Holt , James West , Shaun Ng

Bitcoin is firmly becoming a mainstream asset in our global society. Its highly volatile nature has traders and speculators flooding into the market to take advantage of its significant price swings in the hope of making money. This work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Nathan Crone , Eoin Brophy , Tomas Ward

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Andrés García-Medina , Toan Luu Duc Huynh3