Related papers: Testing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks th…
Network epidemic simulation holds the promise of enabling fine-grained understanding of epidemic behavior, beyond that which is possible with coarse-grained compartmental models. Key inputs to these epidemic simulations are the networks…
Crowd models can be used for the simulation of people movement in the built environment. Crowd model outputs have been used for evaluating safety and comfort of pedestrians, inform crowd management and perform forensic investigations.…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…
The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given…
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
Currently there are many attempts around the world to use computers, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. Most of these attempts focus on collecting information about infected people, in…
This study releases an adaptable framework that can provide insights to policymakers to predict the complex recurring waves of the pandemic in the medium postemergence of the virus spread, a phase marked by rapidly changing factors like…
We study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease. Such measures are…
The main focus of this chapter is on public health control strategies which are currently the main way to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. We introduce and compare compartmental models of increasing complexity for COVID-19 transmission to…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…
We analyze an epidemic model on a network consisting of susceptible-infected-recovered equations at the nodes coupled by diffusion using a graph Laplacian. We introduce an epidemic criterion and examine different vaccination/containment…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…