English

PREPARE: PREdicting PAndemic's REcurring Waves Amidst Mutations, Vaccination, and Lockdowns

Populations and Evolution 2024-10-03 v1 Numerical Analysis Systems and Control Systems and Control Numerical Analysis Probability Chaotic Dynamics

Abstract

This study releases an adaptable framework that can provide insights to policymakers to predict the complex recurring waves of the pandemic in the medium postemergence of the virus spread, a phase marked by rapidly changing factors like virus mutations, lockdowns, and vaccinations, offering a way to forecast infection trends and stay ahead of future outbreaks even amidst uncertainty. The proposed model is validated on data from COVID-19 spread in Germany.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2410.00921,
  title  = {PREPARE: PREdicting PAndemic's REcurring Waves Amidst Mutations, Vaccination, and Lockdowns},
  author = {Narges M. Shahtori and S. Farokh Atashzar},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.00921},
  year   = {2024}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T19:04:12.070Z