Effectiveness of isolation measures with app support to contain COVID-19 epidemics: a parametric approach
Abstract
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical model to compute the relative suppression of the effective reproduction number of an epidemic that such measures produce. This outcome is expressed as a function of a small set of parameters that describe the main features of the epidemic and summarize the effectiveness of the isolation measures. In particular, we focus on the impact when a fraction of the population uses a mobile application for epidemic control. Finally, we apply the model to COVID-19, providing several computations as examples, and a link to a public repository to run custom calculations. These computations display in a quantitative manner the importance of recognizing infected individuals from symptoms and contact-tracing information, and isolating them as early as possible. The computations also assess the impact of each variable on the suppression of the epidemic.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2011.02349,
title = {Effectiveness of isolation measures with app support to contain COVID-19 epidemics: a parametric approach},
author = {Andrea Maiorana and Marco Meneghelli and Mario Resnati},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2011.02349},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
31 pages, 10 figures