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We obtain sharp large deviation estimates for exceedance probabilities in dependent triangular array threshold models with a diverging number of latent factors. The prefactors quantify how latent-factor dependence and tail geometry enter at…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Fengnan Deng , Anand N. Vidyashankar , Jeffrey F. Collamore

In this paper, we study lower tail probabilities of the height function $\mathfrak{h}(M,N)$ of the stochastic six-vertex model. We introduce a novel combinatorial approach to demonstrate that the tail probabilities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Sayan Das , Yuchen Liao , Matteo Mucciconi

We consider the tail distribution of the edge cover time of a specific non-Markov process, $\delta$ once-reinforced random walk, on finite connected graphs, whose transition probability is proportional to weights of edges. Here the weights…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Xiangyu Huang , Yong Liu , Kainan Xiang

Starting with the large deviation principle (LDP) for the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi binomial random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ (edge indicators are i.i.d.), due to Chatterjee and Varadhan (2011), we derive the LDP for the uniform random graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-01 Amir Dembo , Eyal Lubetzky

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

Upper exponential inequalities for the tail probabilities of the centered and normalized number of triangles in the Erd\"{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph are obtained, where the probability of every edge is fixed. The result is formulated in terms of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-21 Alexander Bystrov , Nadezhda Volodko

We introduce a model for a growing random graph based on simultaneous reproduction of the vertices. The model can be thought of as a generalisation of the reproducing graphs of Southwell and Cannings and Bonato et al to allow for a random…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-20 Jonathan Jordan

We consider a class of scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs, which includes some long-range percolation models. We study the maximum degree in such graphs in a growing observation window and show that its limiting distribution is Frechet.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Chinmoy Bhattacharjee , Matthias Schulte

What is the probability that a sparse $n$-vertex random $d$-regular graph $G_n^d$, $n^{1-c}<d=o(n)$ contains many more copies of a fixed graph $K$ than expected? We determine the behavior of this upper tail to within a logarithmic gap in…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-05-20 Benjamin Gunby

We prove a metric space scaling limit for a critical random graph with independent and identically distributed degrees having power-law tail behaviour with exponent $\alpha+1$, where $\alpha \in (1,2)$. The limiting components are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-02 Guillaume Conchon--Kerjan , Christina Goldschmidt

In this paper we focus on the problem of the degree sequence for the following random graph process. At any time-step $t$, one of the following three substeps is executed: with probability $\alpha_1$, a new vertex $x_t$ and $m$ edges…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-07-01 Xian-Yuan Wu , Zhao Dong , Ke Liu , Kai-Yuan Cai

General upper tail estimates are given for counting edges in a random induced subhypergraph of a fixed hypergraph H, with an easy proof by estimating the moments. As an application we consider the numbers of arithmetic progressions and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Svante Janson , Andrzej Rucinski

In this paper we study a version of (non-Markovian) first passage percolation on graphs, where the transmission time between two connected vertices is non-iid, but increases by a penalty factor polynomial in their expected degrees. Based on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-03 Júlia Komjáthy , John Lapinskas , Johannes Lengler , Ulysse Schaller

Both empirical and theoretical investigations of scale-free network models have found that large degrees in a network exert an outsized impact on its structure. However, the tools used to infer the tail behavior of degree distributions in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-31 Daniel Cirkovic , Tiandong Wang , Daren B. H. Cline

We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Nina Gantert , Kavita Ramanan , Franz Rembart

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-30 Harald Bernhard , Bikramjit Das

This paper investigates the decay rate of the probability that the row sum of a triangular array of truncated heavy tailed random variables is larger than an integer (k) times the truncating threshold, as both - the number of summands and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-21 Arijit Chakrabarty

The exponential family of random graphs is one of the most promising class of network models. Dependence between the random edges is defined through certain finite subgraphs, analogous to the use of potential energy to provide dependence…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Mei Yin

We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-09 José M. Zapata

This paper solves the problem of sharp large deviation estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in an Erdos-Renyi random graph, by establishing a logarithmic factor in the exponent that was missing till now. It is possible…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-13 Sourav Chatterjee