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In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

We propose a simple random process inducing various types of random graphs and the scale free random graphs among others. The model is of a threshold nature and differs from the preferential attachment approach discussed in the literature…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 D. Volchenkov , Ph. Blanchard

We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-26 Svante Janson

Big data can easily be contaminated by outliers or contain variables with heavy-tailed distributions, which makes many conventional methods inadequate. To address this challenge, we propose the adaptive Huber regression for robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Qiang Sun , Wenxin Zhou , Jianqing Fan

The stochastic Kronecker Graph model can generate large random graph that closely resembles many real world networks. For example, the output graph has a heavy-tailed degree distribution, has a (low) diameter that effectively remains…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-10-05 Ahmed Mehedi Nizam , Md. Nasim Adnan , Md. Rashedul Islam , Mohammad Akbar Kabir

We extend the construction principle of phase-type (PH) distributions to allow for inhomogeneous transition rates and show that this naturally leads to direct probabilistic descriptions of certain transformations of PH distributions. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-01 Hansjörg Albrecher , Mogens Bladt

We prove large deviation results for the position of the rightmost particle, denoted by $M_n$, in a one-dimensional branching random walk in a case when Cram\'er's condition is not satisfied. More precisely we consider step size…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

We investigate the relaxation of long-tailed distributions under stochastic dynamics that do not support such tails. Linear relaxation is found to be a borderline case in which long tails are exponentially suppressed in time but not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-22 Christian Van den Broeck , Upendra Harbola , Raul Toral , Katja Lindenberg

At very high energies scattering amplitudes in a spontaneously broken gauge theory into multi-particle final states are known to grow factorially with the number of particles produced. Using simple scalar field theory models with and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-07-22 Valentin V. Khoze

Based on numerical simulation and local stability analysis we describe the structure of the phase space of the edge/triangle model of random graphs. We support simulation evidence with mathematical proof of continuity and discontinuity for…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-10-25 Richard Kenyon , Charles Radin , Kui Ren , Lorenzo Sadun

In several applications, ultimately at the largest data, truncation effects can be observed when analysing tail characteristics of statistical distributions. In some cases truncation effects are forecasted through physical models such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Tom Reynkens

The problem of packing Hamilton cycles in random and pseudorandom graphs has been studied extensively. In this paper, we look at the dual question of covering all edges of a graph by Hamilton cycles and prove that if a graph with maximum…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2011-11-15 Roman Glebov , Michael Krivelevich , Tibor Szabó

We consider last-passage percolation models in two dimensions, in which the underlying weight distribution has a heavy tail of index alpha<2. We prove scaling laws and asymptotic distributions, both for the passage times and for the shape…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ben Hambly , James B. Martin

We prove a large deviation principle for the largest eigenvalue of Wigner matrices without Gaussian tails, namely such that the distribution tails $\mathbb{P}( |X_{1,1}|>t)$ and $\mathbb{P}(|X_{1,2}|>t)$ behave like $e^{-bt^{\alpha}}$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Fanny Augeri

Complex networks in different areas exhibit degree distributions with heavy upper tail. A preferential attachment mechanism in a growth process produces a graph with this feature. We herein investigate a variant of the simple preferential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Angelica Pachon , Laura Sacerdote , Shuyi Yang

We consider the multiparameter random simplicial complex on a vertex set $\{ 1,\dots,n \}$, which is parameterized by multiple connectivity probabilities. Our key results concern the topology of this complex of dimensions higher than the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-14 Takashi Owada , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We study the tail behavior for the maximum of discrete Gaussian free field on a 2D box with Dirichlet boundary condition after centering by its expectation. We show that it exhibits an exponential decay for the right tail and a double…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-26 Jian Ding

Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zach Dietz , Sunder Sethuraman

Let $G$ be an $n$-vertex graph, where $\delta(G) \geq \delta n$ for some $\delta := \delta(n)$. A result of Bohman, Frieze and Martin from 2003 asserts that if $\alpha(G) = O \left(\delta^2 n \right)$, then perturbing $G$ via the addition…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-06-27 Elad Aigner-Horev , Dan Hefetz , Michael Krivelevich
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