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When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…
Probability distributions and densities are derived for the excess and deficiency of the intensity or instantaneous energy (quasi-static power) associated with a $p$-dimensional random vector field. Explicit expressions for the exact…
There has been growing attention on how to effectively and objectively use covariate information when the primary goal is to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). In this paper, we propose an…
Polygenic risk scores (PRS) developed from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying the genetic contribution to disease, and many clinical applications have been proposed. Bayesian methods…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…
We propose a new method to combine adaptive processes with a class of entropy estimators for the case of streams of data. Starting from a first estimation obtained from a batch of initial data, model parameters are estimated at each step by…
Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…
The piecewise exponential model is a flexible non-parametric approach for time-to-event data, but extrapolation beyond final observation times typically relies on random walk priors and deterministic knot locations, resulting in unrealistic…
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…
This paper studies epidemic processes over discrete-time periodic time-varying networks. We focus on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that accounts for a (possibly) mutating virus. We say that an agent is in the disease-free…
A theory of flow stress, including the yield strength is proposed for the class of PC materials with equilibrium defect structure (EDS), which is established in the PC material after series of $N_0$ similar treatments of severe plastic…
Motivated by the need to study the molecular mechanism underlying Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) with the gene expression data collected from both the patients and healthy controls at multiple time points, we propose an innovative method for jointly…
An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…
Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…
Using the maximum-entropy method, we calculate the end-to-end distance distribution of the force stretched chain from the moments of the distribution, which can be obtained from the extension-force curves recorded in single-molecule…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
We introduce a new version of forward stepwise regression. Our modification finds solutions to regression problems where the selected predictors appear in a structured pattern, with respect to a predefined distance measure over the…