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Single-particle traces of the diffusive motion of molecules, cells, or animals are by-now routinely measured, similar to stochastic records of stock prices or weather data. Deciphering the stochastic mechanism behind the recorded dynamics…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-14 Henrik Seckler , Janusz Szwabinski , Ralf Metzler

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Oleksandr Shchur , Marin Biloš , Stephan Günnemann

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

In the study of dynamical processes on networks, there has been intense focus on network structure -- i.e., the arrangement of edges and their associated weights -- but the effects of the temporal patterns of edges remains poorly…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-16 Till Hoffmann , Mason A. Porter , Renaud Lambiotte

We propose a new class of univariate nonstationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly-evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing…

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Neil Shephard , Justin J. Yang

This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Michael Levine , Xiaoguang Wang , Jian Frank Zou

A class of stochastic processes strongly related to random sums plays an important role in network and in finance. In this paper we study this kind of stochastic process discuss an overtime unchanged parameter and reveal its asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Yu Li

The main purpose of this chapter is to present some theoretical aspects of parametric estimation of L\'evy processes based on high-frequency sampling, with a focus on infinite activity pure-jump models. Asymptotics for several classes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-02 Hiroki Masuda

Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 V. Gontis , B. Kaulakys

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…

Classical particles driven through periodically modulated potential energy landscapes are predicted to follow a Devil's staircase hierarchy of commensurate trajectories depending on the orientation of the driving force. Recent experiments…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 Ajay Gopinathan , David G. Grier

Aperiodic variability is a characteristic feature of young stars, massive stars, and active galactic nuclei. With the recent proliferation of time domain surveys, it is increasingly essential to develop methods to quantify and analyze…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-01 Krzysztof Findeisen , Ann Marie Cody , Lynne Hillenbrand

Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-20 John Mern , Peter Morales , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Random walks are basic diffusion processes on networks and have applications in, for example, searching, navigation, ranking, and community detection. Recent recognition of the importance of temporal aspects on networks spurred studies of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-01-14 Leo Speidel , Renaud Lambiotte , Kazuyuki Aihara , Naoki Masuda

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the finite-dimensional distributions and asymptotic behavior of extremal Markov processes connected to the Kendall convolution. In particular, based on its stochastic representation, we provide…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-10 Marek Arendarczyk , Barbara Jasiulis-Gołdyn , Edward Omey

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

We consider random variables observed at arrival times of a renewal process, which possibly depends on those observations and has regularly varying steps with infinite mean. Due to the dependence and heavy tailed steps, the limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Bojan Basrak , Drago Špoljarić

We introduce a class of discrete time stationary trawl processes taking real or integer values and written as sums of past values of independent `seed' processes on shrinking intervals (`trawl heights'). Related trawl processes in…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Paul Doukhan , Silvia Lopes , Adam Jakubowski , Donatas Surgailis