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In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

We present an efficient finite difference method for the computation of parameter sensitivities that is applicable to a wide class of continuous time Markov chain models. The estimator for the method is constructed by coupling the perturbed…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-05-14 David F. Anderson

We extend the ideas of (Barbour 1990) and use Stein's method to obtain a bound on the distance between a scaled time-changed random walk and a time-changed Brownian Motion. We then apply this result to bound the distance between a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-05 Mikolaj J. Kasprzak

In several application areas, such as human computer interaction, surveillance and defence, determining the intent of a tracked object enables systems to aid the user/operator and facilitate effective, possibly automated, decision making.…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-05 Bashar I. Ahmad , James K. Murphy , Patrick M. Langdon , Simon J. Godsill

The simulation of exit times for diffusion processes is a challenging task since it concerns many applications in different fields like mathematical finance, neuroscience, reliability... The usual procedure is to use discretiza-tion schemes…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Samuel Herrmann , C. Zucca

Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2014-05-14 S. Iblisdir

There are a number of situations where, when computing prices of financial derivatives using quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), it turns out to be beneficial to apply an orthogonal transform to the standard normal input variables. Sometimes those…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Christian Irrgeher , Gunther Leobacher

In this paper, we consider the composition of two independent processes : one process corresponds to position and the other one to time. Such processes will be called iterated processes. We first propose an algorithm based on the Euler…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-03 Michèle Thieullen , Alexis Vigot

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. W. R. Darling

We propose a novel, tractable latent state inference scheme for Markov jump processes, for which exact inference is often intractable. Our approach is based on an entropic matching framework that can be embedded into the well-known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Yannick Eich , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 David Roberts , Trevor McCourt , Geremia Massarelli , Jeremy Rothschild , Nahuel Freitas

We prove Feynman-Kac formulas for solutions to elliptic and parabolic boundary value and obstacle problems associated with a general Markov diffusion process. Our diffusion model covers several popular stochastic volatility models, such as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-15 Paul M. N. Feehan , Ruoting Gong , Jian Song

We consider stochastic variational inequalities with monotone operators defined as the expected value of a random operator. We assume the feasible set is the intersection of a large family of convex sets. We propose a method that combines…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-03 Alfredo Iusem , Alejandro Jofré , Philip Thompson

For integer valued random variables, the translated Poisson distributions form a flexible family for approximation in total variation, in much the same way that the normal family is used for approximation in Kolmogorov distance. Using the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-26 A. D. Barbour , Malwina J. Luczak , Aihua Xia

We develop a forward-reverse EM (FREM) algorithm for estimating parameters that determine the dynamics of a discrete time Markov chain evolving through a certain measurable state space. As a key tool for the construction of the FREM method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-29 Christian Bayer , Hilmar Mai , John Schoenmakers

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-25 Alexandros Beskos , Joseph Dureau , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

Consider a discrete finite-dimensional, Markovian market model. In this setting, discretely sampled American options can be priced using the so-called ``non-recombining'' tree algorithm. By successively increasing the number of exercise…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Frederik S Herzberg

We consider discrete-time Markov bridges, chains whose initial and final states coincide. We derive exact finite-time formulae for the joint probability distributions of additive functionals of trajectories. We apply our theory to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-16 Édgar Roldán , Pierpaolo Vivo

We demonstrate effectiveness of the first-order algorithm from [Milstein, Tretyakov. Theory Prob. Appl. 47 (2002), 53-68] in application to barrier option pricing. The algorithm uses the weak Euler approximation far from barriers and a…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-11-27 M. Krivko , M. V. Tretyakov