Related papers: On extension of the Markov chain approximation met…
Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
We develop a framework for the compression of reversible Markov chains with rigorous error control. Given a subset of selected states, we construct reduced dynamics that can be lifted to an approximation of the full dynamics, and we prove…
In this paper, we exploit the gradient flow structure of continuous-time formulations of Bayesian inference in terms of their numerical time-stepping. We focus on two particular examples, namely, the continuous-time ensemble Kalman-Bucy…
A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique…
We study the random acceleration model, which is perhaps one of the simplest, yet nontrivial, non-Markov stochastic processes, and is key to many applications. For this non-Markov process, we present exact analytical results for the…
This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…
Since diffusion processes arise in so many different fields, efficient tech-nics for the simulation of sample paths, like discretization schemes, represent crucial tools in applied probability. Such methods permit to obtain approximations…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…
We present a probabilistic model for stochastic iterative algorithms with the use case of optimization algorithms in mind. Based on this model, we present PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for functions that are defined on the trajectory…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new…
By means of the Ito-Nisio theorem, we introduce and discuss a general approach to series representations of path integrals. We then argue that the optimal basis for both ``primitive'' and partial averaged approaches is the Wiener…
In this paper, we present new Poisson-type deviation inequalities for continuous-time Markov chains whose Wasserstein curvature or $\Gamma$-curvature is bounded below. Although these two curvatures are equivalent for Brownian motion on…
Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…
This paper considers stochastic-constrained stochastic optimization where the stochastic constraint is to satisfy that the expectation of a random function is below a certain threshold. In particular, we study the setting where data samples…
We consider a Markovian load balancing model on a fully-connected network, where calls have Poisson arrivals and exponential durations. The endpoints of each call are uniform over all the links of the network. Each call is routed either…
Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…
A hierarchical Bayesian approach that permits simultaneous inference for the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix in the multivariate linear model is proposed. Assuming a natural ordering of the…
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the strong approximation of the integrated empirical process. More precisely, we obtain the exact rate of the approximations by a sequence of weighted Brownian bridges and a weighted Kiefer…