Related papers: On extension of the Markov chain approximation met…
We study approximations for the L\'evy area of Brownian motion which are based on the Fourier series expansion and a polynomial expansion of the associated Brownian bridge. Comparing the asymptotic convergence rates of the L\'evy area…
We study the split Conformal Prediction method when applied to Markovian data. We quantify the gap in terms of coverage induced by the correlations in the data (compared to exchangeable data). This gap strongly depends on the mixing…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
We introduce a unified framework to estimate the convergence of Markov chains to equilibrium in Wasserstein distance. The framework can provide convergence bounds with rates ranging from polynomial to exponential, all derived from a…
The main purpose of this paper is to extend the information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina to a more general set-up. We include a wider class of models for market information and in contrast to the original paper,…
We study mean-field particle approximations of normalized Feynman-Kac semi-groups, usually called Fleming-Viot or Feynman-Kac particle systems. Assuming various large time stability properties of the semi-group uniformly in the initial…
We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…
Poisson's equation has a lot of applications in various areas. Usually it is hard to derive the explicit expression of the solution of Poisson's equation for a Markov chain on an infinitely many state space. We will present a computational…
The aim of this paper is to approximate a finite-state Markov process by another process with fewer states, called herein the approximating process. The approximation problem is formulated using two different methods. The first method,…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks is a natural structured representation language for multicomponent stochastic processes that evolve continuously over time. Despite the compact representation, inference in such models is intractable even…
In this paper we study a reflected Markov-modulated Brownian motion with a two sided reflection in which the drift, diffusion coefficient and the two boundaries are (jointly) modulated by a finite state space irreducible continuous time…
We provide two applications of an elementary (yet seemingly unknown) probabilistic representation of matrix ordered exponentials, which generalizes the Feynman-Kac formula in finite dimensions and the change of measure formula between two…
Approximating the stationary probability of a state in a Markov chain through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is, in general, inefficient. Standard random walk approaches require $\tilde{O}(\tau/\pi(v))$ operations to approximate the…
In this paper we consider large state space continuous time Markov chains (MCs) arising in the field of systems biology. For density dependent families of MCs that represent the interaction of large groups of identical objects, Kurtz has…
This paper develops a new technique for the path approximation of one-dimensional stochastic processes, more precisely the Brownian motion and families of stochastic differential equations sharply linked to the Brownian motion (usually…
We derive new concentration bounds for time averages of measurement outcomes in quantum Markov processes. This generalizes well-known bounds for classical Markov chains which provide constraints on finite time fluctuations of time-additive…
Barrier crossing is a widespread phenomenon across natural and engineering systems. While an abundant cross-disciplinary literature on the topic has emerged over the years, the stochastic underpinnings of the process are yet to be linked…
In this paper, we present a numerical framework for constructing bounds on stationary performance measures of random walks in the positive orthant using the Markov reward approach. These bounds are established in terms of stationary…
It is known that the distribution of nonreversible Markov processes breaking the detailed balance condition converges faster to the stationary distribution compared to reversible processes having the same stationary distribution. This is…
We delve deeper into our study of the connection of Brownian-time processes (BTPs) to fourth order parabolic PDEs, which we introduced in a recent joint article with W. Zheng. Probabilistically, BTPs and their cousins BTPs with excursions…