Related papers: Mortality modeling at old-age: a mixture model app…
In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…
We use a simple model for biological ageing to study the mortality of the population, obtaining a good agreement with the Gompertz law. We also simulate the same model on a square lattice, considering different strategies of parental care.…
This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…
To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…
In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…
As cancer patient survival improves, late effects from treatment are becoming the next clinical challenge. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy, for example, potentially increase the risk of both morbidity and mortality from second malignancies…
Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
Dementia currently affects about 50 million people worldwide, and this number is rising. Since there is still no cure, the primary focus remains on preventing modifiable risk factors such as cardiovascular factors. It is now recognized that…
In this work we check the occurrence of the Azbel assumption of mortality within the framework of a bit string model for biological ageing. We reproduced the observed feature of linear correspondence between the fitting parameters of the…
Recently, it has been shown that the transition rates of the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions are related to the percentages of people in the states by a three-dimensional system of differential equations [Bri24]. The aim of…
The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole…
Continuous-time multistate models are widely used for analyzing interval-censored data on disease progression over time. Sometimes, diseases manifest differently and what appears to be a coherent collection of symptoms is the expression of…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
We propose a novel extension of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model to forecast mortality rates by integrating randomized signatures, referred to as the HU model with randomized signatures (HUrs). Unlike truncated signatures, which grow…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…