Related papers: Mortality modeling at old-age: a mixture model app…
The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…
Existing metrics in competing risks survival analysis such as concordance and accuracy do not evaluate a model's ability to jointly predict the event type and the event time. To address these limitations, we propose a new metric, which we…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
Predicting an infectious disease can help reduce its impact by advising public health interventions and personal preventive measures. Novel data streams, such as Internet and social media data, have recently been reported to benefit…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
This paper analyzes mortality cohort effect of birth year and develops an approach to identify and measure cohort effects in mortality data set. The approach is based on differential geometry and leads to an explicit result which can…
Death events commonly arise from complex interactions among interrelated causes, formally classified in reporting practices as underlying and contributing. Leveraging information from death certificates, these interactions can be naturally…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…
Matsushita et al (1992) have done an interesting finding. They observed that the shape parameter of the Weibull model presented systematic changes over time and age when applied to mortality data for males and females in Japan. They have…
In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. Despite the many advantages of joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise…
We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter)…
We combine the Penna Model for biological aging, which is based on the mutation-accumulation theory, with a sort of antagonistic pleiotropy. We show that depending on how the pleiotropy is introduced, it is possible to reproduce both the…
Age-specific probabilities of death provide a snapshot of population mortality at the country level at a given point in time. Due to the high dimensionality of the data, summarising mortality information is essential for various analyses,…
Aging associated brain decline often result in some kind of dementia. Even when this is a complex brain disorder a physical model can be used in order to describe its general behavior. This model is based in first principles. A…
Dynamic event prediction, using joint modeling of survival time and longitudinal variables, is extremely useful in personalized medicine. However, the estimation of joint models including many longitudinal markers is still a computational…
Suppose, contrary to fact, in 1950, we had put the cohort of 18 year old non-smoking American men on a stringent mandatory diet that guaranteed that no one would ever weigh more than their baseline weight established at age 18. How would…
This study proposes a mixture cure model that latently divides a population based on event occurrence within a finite time horizon. Conventional models rely on event occurrence over an infinite horizon, introducing untestable assumptions…
The study of mortality patterns is a popular research topic in many areas. We are particularly interested in mortality patterns among main causes of death associated with age-gender combinations. We use symbolic data analysis (SDA) and…
The UK Biobank is a large-scale health resource comprising genetic, environmental and medical information on approximately 500,000 volunteer participants in the UK, recruited at ages 40--69 during the years 2006--2010. The project monitors…