Related papers: Mortality modeling at old-age: a mixture model app…
The decrease in the increase in death rates at old ages is a phenomenon that has repeatedly been discussed in demographic research. While mortality deceleration can be explained in the gamma-Gompertz model as an effect of selection in…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…
A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…
The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individuals genomes are represented by bit-strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten…
To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…
This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…