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This paper provides a nonparametric framework for causal inference with categorical outcomes under binary treatment and binary instrument settings. I decompose the observed joint probability of outcomes and treatment into marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Onil Boussim

We study the role of selection into treatment in difference-in-differences (DiD) designs. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for parallel trends assumptions under general classes of selection mechanisms. These conditions…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Dalia Ghanem , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Kaspar Wüthrich

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Synthetic Control (SC) are widely used methods for causal inference in panel data, each with distinct strengths and limitations. We propose a novel method for short-panel causal inference that integrates…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-26 Yixiao Sun , Haitian Xie , Yuhang Zhang

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

This paper considers conducting inference about the effect of a treatment (or exposure) on an outcome of interest. In the ideal setting where treatment is assigned randomly, under certain assumptions the treatment effect is identifiable…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Amy Richardson , Michael G. Hudgens , Peter B. Gilbert , Jason P. Fine

Suppose one is interested in estimating causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding with the aid of a valid instrumental variable. This paper investigates the problem of making inferences about the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 BaoLuo Sun , Wang Miao

The common practice in difference-in-difference (DiD) designs is to check for parallel trends prior to treatment assignment, yet typical estimation and inference does not account for the fact that this test has occurred. I analyze the…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-03 Jonathan Roth

With reference to a binary outcome and a binary mediator, we derive identification bounds for natural effects under a reduced set of assumptions. Specifically, no assumptions about confounding are made that involve the outcome; we only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Marco Doretti , Elena Stanghellini

The difference-in-differences (DID) design is one of the most popular methods used in empirical economics research. However, there is almost no work examining what the DID method identifies in the presence of a misclassified treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-01 Augustine Denteh , Désiré Kédagni

Triple difference designs have become increasingly popular in empirical economics. The advantage of a triple difference design is that, within a treatment group, it allows for another subgroup of the population -- potentially less impacted…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-04 Laura Caron

We consider treatment-effect estimation with a two-periods panel, where units are untreated at period one, and receive strictly positive doses at period two. First, we consider designs with some quasi-untreated units, with a period-two dose…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-02 Clément de Chaisemartin , Diego Ciccia , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Felix Knau

A key challenge in causal inference from observational studies is the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for causal inference that…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-17 Ying Zhou , Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is arguably the most popular quasi-experimental research design. Its canonical form, with two groups and two periods, is well-understood. However, empirical practices can be ad hoc when researchers go beyond…

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

We consider estimating the conditional average treatment effect for everyone by eliminating confounding and selection bias. Unfortunately, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) eliminate confounding but impose strict exclusion criteria that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-15 Eric V. Strobl , Thomas A. Lasko

Matching is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks in observational studies. However, all the existing matching-based causal inference methods are designed for either a single treatment with general treatment types (e.g.,…

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

Since the initial work by Ashenfelter and Card in 1985, the use of difference-in-differences (DID) study design has become widespread. However, as pointed out in the literature, this popular quasi-experimental design also suffers estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Xiaoming Wang , Sukun Wang

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yaroslav Kivva , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash
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