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Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying public health intervention on the course of an infectious disease epidemic is an important methodological challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the effects…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-20 Yichi Zhang , Forrest W. Crawford

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

When applied in healthcare, reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to dynamically match the right interventions to subjects to maximize population benefit. However, the learned policy may disproportionately allocate efficacious actions to one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-15 Jitao Wang , Chengchun Shi , John D. Piette , Joshua R. Loftus , Donglin Zeng , Zhenke Wu

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

In personalized medicine, the ability to predict and optimize treatment outcomes across various time frames is essential. Additionally, the ability to select cost-effective treatments within specific budget constraints is critical. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Thomas Schwarz , Cecilia Casolo , Niki Kilbertus

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Stratis Tsirtsis , Abir De , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Functional data is a powerful tool for capturing and analyzing complex patterns and relationships in a variety of fields, allowing for more precise modeling, visualization, and decision-making. For example, in healthcare, functional data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Xiyuan Gao , Jiayi Wang , Guanyu Hu , Jianguo Sun

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Baohong Li , Ziyang Xiao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Qing Han , Kun Kuang

Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes is a challenging task in many domains, particularly in medicine where treatment protocols adapt over time. While recent advances in representation learning have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Ayoub Abraich

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Nir Rosenfeld , Yishay Mansour , Elad Yom-Tov

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Wentao Gao , Thuc Duy Le

Clinical outcome or severity prediction from medical images has largely focused on learning representations from single-timepoint or snapshot scans. It has been shown that disease progression can be better characterized by temporal imaging.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-01 Aishik Konwer , Xuan Xu , Joseph Bae , Chao Chen , Prateek Prasanna

We introduce temporal multimodal multivariate learning, a new family of decision making models that can indirectly learn and transfer online information from simultaneous observations of a probability distribution with more than one peak or…