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We derive first-order (in the stepsize) bounds on the bias in Wasserstein distances of the invariant measure of stochastic gradient kinetic Langevin dynamics with minimal assumptions on the stochastic gradient noise. These bounds sharpen…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-28 Daniel Paulin , Peter A. Whalley

In this paper we study bounds for the total variation distance between two second degree polynomials in normal random variables provided that they essentially depend on at least three variables.

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Egor Kosov

We uncover a universal scaling law governing the dispersion of collective attention and identify its underlying stochastic criticality. By analysing large-scale ensembles of Wikipedia page views, we find that the variance of logarithmic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-21 Keisuke Okamura

We construct a model of Brownian Motion on a pseudo-Riemannian manifold associated with general relativity. There are two aspects of the problem: The first is to define a sequence of stopping times associated with the Brownian "kicks" or…

General Physics · Physics 2013-04-02 Paul O'Hara , Lamberto Rondoni

Adaptive importance sampling techniques are widely known for the Gaussian setting of Brownian driven diffusions. In this work, we want to extend them to jump processes. Our approach relies on a change of the jump intensity combined with the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-09 Laetitia Badouraly Kassim , Jérôme Lelong , Imane Loumrhari

We establish an invariance principle for a one-dimensional random walk in a dynamical random environment given by a speed-change exclusion process. The jump probabilities of the walk depend on the configuration of the exclusion in a finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-17 Milton Jara , Otávio Menezes

The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-05 Henrik Hult , Adam Lindhe , Pierre Nyquist , Guo-Jhen Wu

We calculate analytically the probability density $P(t_m)$ of the time $t_m$ at which a continuous-time Brownian motion (with and without drift) attains its maximum before passing through the origin for the first time. We also compute the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-02-25 Julien Randon-Furling , Satya N. Majumdar

We consider the small deviation probabilities (SDP) for sums of stationary Gaussian sequences. For the cases of constant boundaries and boundaries tending to zero, we obtain quite general results. For the case of the boundaries tending to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Frank Aurzada , Mikhail Lifshits

In this paper, we establish a large deviation principle for a fully non-linear stochastic evolution equation driven by both Brownian motions and Poisson random measures on a given Hilbert space $H$. The weak convergence method plays an…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-05 Xue Yang , Jianliang Zhai , Tusheng Zhang

Using key tools such as It\^o formula for general semi-martingales, moments estimates for L\'{e}vy-type stochastic integrals and properties of regular varying functions we find conditions under which solutions of stochastic differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-09 I. Orlovskyi , F. Proske , O. Tymoshenko

This analysis derives the maximum likelihood estimator and applies Bayesian inference to model geometric Brownian motion, incorporating jump diffusion to account for sudden market shifts. The Bayesian approach is implemented using Markov…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-14 Yifei Yan , Juan Sosa , Carlos Martínez

The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-27 Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko , Sergiy Shklyar

We study the relation between the total variation (TV) and Hellinger distances between two Gaussian location mixtures. Our first result establishes a general upper bound: for any two mixing distributions supported on a compact set, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Joonhyuk Jung , Chao Gao

In this paper, we consider the stochastic averaging principle and stability for multi-valued McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with jumps. First, under certain averaging conditions, we are able to show that the solutions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-07 Guangjun Shen , Jie Xiang , Jiang-Lun Wu

We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Balazs Gerencser , Miklos Rasonyi

We consider the minimization over probability measures of the expected value of a random variable, regularized by relative entropy with respect to a given probability distribution. In the general setting we provide a complete…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Joris Bierkens , Hilbert J. Kappen

It is known that the slow motion $X^\varepsilon$ in the time-scaled multidimensional averaging setup $\frac {dX^\varepsilon(t)}{dt}=\frac 1\varepsilon B(X^\varepsilon(t),\,\xi(t/\varepsilon^2))+b(X^\varepsilon(t),\,\xi(t/\ve^2)),\, t\in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-26 Yuri Kifer

The aim of this paper is to analyze a class of random motions which models the motion of a particle on the real line with random velocity and subject to the action of the friction. The speed randomly changes when a Poissonian event occurs.…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-12-31 Alessandro De Gregorio

Density-dependent Markov chains form an important class of continuous-time Markov chains in population dynamics. On any fixed time window [0, T ], when the scale parameter K > 0 is large such chains are well approximated by the solution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-14 Adrien Prodhomme