English

Logarithmic scaling and stochastic criticality in collective attention

Physics and Society 2026-01-21 v1 Statistical Mechanics Digital Libraries Social and Information Networks Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Abstract

We uncover a universal scaling law governing the dispersion of collective attention and identify its underlying stochastic criticality. By analysing large-scale ensembles of Wikipedia page views, we find that the variance of logarithmic attention grows ultraslowly, Var[lnX(t)]lnt\operatorname{Var}[\ln{X(t)}]\propto\ln{t}, in sharp contrast to the power-law scaling typically expected for diffusive processes. We show that this behaviour is captured by a minimal stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion, in which long-range memory (HH) and temporal decay of volatility (η\eta) enter through the single exponent ξHη\xi\equiv H-\eta. At marginality, ξ=0\xi=0, the variance grows logarithmically, marking the critical boundary between power-law growth (ξ>0\xi>0) and saturation (ξ<0\xi<0). By incorporating article-level heterogeneity through a Gaussian mixture model, we further reconstruct the empirical distribution of cumulative attention within the same framework. Our results place collective attention in a distinct class of non-Markovian stochastic processes, with close affinity to ageing-like and ultraslow dynamics in glassy systems.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.12306,
  title  = {Logarithmic scaling and stochastic criticality in collective attention},
  author = {Keisuke Okamura},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.12306},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Main Text: 7 pages (2 figures, 2 tables); Supplementary Materials: 5 pages (5 figures)