Related papers: Quantifying Tipping Risks in Power Grids and beyon…
Computation plays a key role in predicting and analyzing natural phenomena. There are two fundamental barriers to our ability to computationally understand the long-term behavior of a dynamical system that describes a natural process. The…
Cascading failures are one of the main reasons for blackouts in electric power transmission grids. The economic cost of such failures is in the order of tens of billion dollars annually. The loading level of power system is a key aspect to…
We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…
This paper considers power networks governed by swing nonlinear dynamics and subject to disturbances. We develop a bilayered control strategy for a subset of buses that simultaneously guarantees transient frequency safety of each individual…
In a Nature article, Scheffer et al. presented a novel data-driven framework to predict critical transitions in complex systems. These transitions, which may stem from failures, degradation, or adversarial actions, have been attributed to…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
The principal aim of the present work is to explore limit theorems for small random perturbations of dynamical systems with periodic impulse effects, in the limit of vanishing noise intensity. We start with a system whose time evolution is…
Reliable functioning of infrastructure networks is essential for our modern society. Cascading failures are the cause of most large-scale network outages. Although cascading failures often exhibit dynamical transients, the modeling of…
The energy transition is causing many stability-related challenges for power systems. Transient stability refers to the ability of a power grid's bus angles to retain synchronism after the occurrence of a major fault. In this paper a…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…
Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task, examples include ecosystems, financial markets, complex diseases, etc. In this paper, we…
Due to the evolving nature of power systems and the complicated coupling relationship of power devices, it has been a great challenge to identify the contingencies that could trigger cascading blackouts of power systems. This paper aims to…
Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
Biological, artificial, and physical systems dissipate energy to accurately transmit information. While tools of information theory have been used to characterize information-processing capabilities, how reliably this information is…
The reliable operation of modern power grids requires probabilistic load forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, existing deep learning models produce overconfident point predictions that fail catastrophically under…
Event-based state estimation can achieve estimation quality comparable to traditional time-triggered methods, but with a significantly lower number of samples. In networked estimation problems, this reduction in sampling instants does,…
Many physical systems are forced by external inputs, which can sometimes take the form of chaotic variation. A particular example is found in applications related to weather and climate, where chaotic variation is prevalent across various…
The behavior of a stationary inverted point mass pendulum pivoted at its lower end in a gravitational potential is studied under the influence of statistical fluctuations. It is shown using purely classical equations that the pendulum…