Related papers: Quantifying Tipping Risks in Power Grids and beyon…
We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of…
In stochastic multistable systems driven by the gradient of a potential, transitions between equilibria is possible because of noise. We study the ability of linear delay feedback control to mitigate these transitions, ensuring that the…
Mathematical models of gene regulatory networks are widely used to study cell fate changes and transcriptional regulation. When designing such models, it is important to accurately account for sources of stochasticity. However, doing so can…
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…
Motivated by the noisy and fluctuating behavior of current quantum computing devices, this paper presents a data-driven characterization approach for estimating transition frequencies and decay times in a Lindbladian dynamical model of a…
Empirical estimation of critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is among the remaining challenges in network science. However, due to the stochastic nature of critical transitions it is widely…
This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The system's outputs are contaminated by possibly…
The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…
The growing digitalization and the rapid adoption of high-powered Internet-of-Things (IoT)-enabled devices (e.g., EV charging stations) have increased the vulnerability of power grids to cyber threats. In particular, the so-called Load…
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the identification of potential rapid, non-linear change or…
The electric power system is one of the cornerstones of modern society. One of its most serious malfunctions is the blackout, a catastrophic event that may disrupt a substantial portion of the system, playing havoc to human life and causing…
We consider stochastic electro-mechanical dynamics of an overdamped power system in the vicinity of the saddle-node bifurcation associated with the loss of global stability such as voltage collapse or phase angle instability. Fluctuations…
Network structures in a wide array of systems such as social networks, transportation, power and water distribution infrastructures, and biological and ecological systems can exhibit critical thresholds or tipping points beyond which there…
We consider a periodically-forced 1-D Langevin equation that possesses two stable periodic solutions in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely noise-induced transition path between these periodic solutions that…
We propose a general methodology for identifying critical lines in the long-distance transmission of power across large electric grids. When the system is pushed to its operational limit, for instance by large power imbalances such as those…
Transition phenomena between thermal noise state and turbulent state observed in a submarginal turbulent plasma are analyzed with statistical theory. Time-development of turbulent fluctuation is obtained by numerical simulations of Langevin…
Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when time-variation of input parameters of a dynamical system interacts with system timescales to give genuine nonautonomous instabilities. Such instabilities appear as the input varies at some…
Minimizing both power fluctuations and energy waste in an electrical grid is a central challenge to energy policy. Any discrepancy between power production and loads may lead to inefficiencies and instability in the system. Right now, the…
We study the effects of noise on the dynamics of a system of coupled self-propelling particles in the case where the coupling is time-delayed, and the delays are discrete and randomly generated. Previous work has demonstrated that the…
This paper aims to proactively diagnose and manage frequency instability risks from a steady-state perspective, without the need for derivative-dependent transient modeling. Specifically, we jointly address two questions (Q1) Survivability:…