Related papers: Quantifying Tipping Risks in Power Grids and beyon…
Pervasive across diverse domains, stochastic systems exhibit fluctuations in processes ranging from molecular dynamics to climate phenomena. The Langevin equation has served as a common mathematical model for studying such systems, enabling…
During major power system disturbances, when multiple component outages occur in rapid succession, it becomes crucial to quickly identify the transmission interconnections that have limited power transfer capability. Understanding the…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
Knowledge of power grid's topology during cascading failure is an essential element of centralized blackout prevention control, given that multiple islands are typically formed, as a cascade progresses. Moreover, academic research on…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
Power system blackouts are usually triggered by the initial contingency and then deteriorate as the branch outage spreads quickly. Thus, it is crucial to eliminate the propagation of cascading outages in its infancy. In this paper, a model…
A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…
This paper is concerned with estimating critical clearing times in the transient stability problem of power grids without extensive time-domain simulations. We consider a highdimensional post-fault system (the grid after the fault is…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 autocorrelation [AC(1)] are used as CSD indicators. However,…
Due to the evolving nature of power systems and the complicated coupling relationship of power devices, it has been a great challenge to identify the contingencies that could trigger cascading blackouts of power systems. This paper provides…
Warning signs for tipping points (or critical transitions) have been very actively studied. Although the theory has been applied successfully in models and in experiments for many complex systems such as for tipping in climate systems,…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…
Cascade failures in power grids occur when the failure of one component or subsystem causes a chain reaction of failures in other components or subsystems, ultimately leading to a widespread blackout or outage. Controlling cascade failures…