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Related papers: Counterfactuals for the Future

200 papers

Identifying the underlying reason for a failing dynamic process or otherwise anomalous observation is a fundamental challenge, yet has numerous industrial applications. Identifying the failure-causing sub-system using causal inference, one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Karim Barsim , Martin Fränzle

Counterfactual explanations shed light on the decisions of black-box models by explaining how an input can be altered to obtain a favourable decision from the model (e.g., when a loan application has been rejected). However, as noted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Francesco Leofante , Nico Potyka

Counterfactuals play a pivotal role in the two distinct data science fields of causal inference (CI) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). While the core idea behind counterfactuals remains the same in both fields--the examination…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Galit Shmueli , David Martens , Jaewon Yoo , Travis Greene

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

While AI algorithms have shown remarkable success in various fields, their lack of transparency hinders their application to real-life tasks. Although explanations targeted at non-experts are necessary for user trust and human-AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Jasmina Gajcin , Ivana Dusparic

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Explainability is increasingly seen as an essential feature of rule-based smart environments. While counterfactual explanations, which describe what could have been done differently to achieve a desired outcome, are a powerful tool in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Anna Trapp , Mersedeh Sadeghi , Andreas Vogelsang

Machine Learning models are increasingly used in businesses to detect faults and anomalies in complex systems. In this work, we take this approach a step further: beyond merely detecting anomalies, we aim to identify the optimal control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-15 Emilio Carrizosa , Martina Fischetti , Roshell Haaker , Juan Miguel Morales

Contextual predictability shapes how we choose and encode words in production. The effects of a word's predictability given preceding or past context are generally well-understood in both production and comprehension, but studies of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Shiva Upadhye , Richard Futrell

Displaying confidence scores in human-AI interaction has been shown to help build trust between humans and AI systems. However, most existing research uses only the confidence score as a form of communication. As confidence scores are just…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thao Le , Tim Miller , Ronal Singh , Liz Sonenberg

Machine learning models are widely used in real-world applications. However, their complexity makes it often challenging to interpret the rationale behind their decisions. Counterfactual explanations (CEs) have emerged as a viable solution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Muhammad Suffian , Jose M. Alonso-Moral , Alessandro Bogliolo

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a powerful means for understanding how decisions made by algorithms can be changed. Researchers have proposed a number of desiderata that CEs should meet to be practically useful, such as requiring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Marco Virgolin , Saverio Fracaros

A highly accurate but overconfident model is ill-suited for deployment in critical applications such as healthcare and autonomous driving. The classification outcome should reflect a high uncertainty on ambiguous in-distribution samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Sumedha Singla , Nihal Murali , Forough Arabshahi , Sofia Triantafyllou , Kayhan Batmanghelich

Counterfactual explanations and adversarial attacks have a related goal: flipping output labels with minimal perturbations regardless of their characteristics. Yet, adversarial attacks cannot be used directly in a counterfactual explanation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Guillaume Jeanneret , Loïc Simon , Frédéric Jurie

Providing explanations about how machine learning algorithms work and/or make particular predictions is one of the main tools that can be used to improve their trusworthiness, fairness and robustness. Among the most intuitive type of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-12 Rubén Ruiz-Torrubiano

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We study settings in which a researcher has an instrumental variable (IV) and seeks to evaluate the effects of a counterfactual policy that alters treatment assignment, such as a directive encouraging randomly assigned judges to release…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-16 Michal Kolesár , José Luis Montiel Olea , Jonathan Roth

As humans come to rely on autonomous systems more, ensuring the transparency of such systems is important to their continued adoption. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to reduce confusion and foster trust in systems by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Benjamin Kraske , Zakariya Laouar , Zachary Sunberg

To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud