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Related papers: Counterfactuals for the Future

200 papers

Monitoring unexpected health events and taking actionable measures to avert them beforehand is central to maintaining health and preventing disease. Therefore, a tool capable of predicting adverse health events and offering users actionable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Asiful Arefeen , Hassan Ghasemzadeh

The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Counterfactual explanations elucidate algorithmic decisions by pointing to scenarios that would have led to an alternative, desired outcome. Giving insight into the model's behavior, they hint users towards possible actions and give grounds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-05 Susanne Dandl , Kristin Blesch , Timo Freiesleben , Gunnar König , Jan Kapar , Bernd Bischl , Marvin Wright

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-09-12 Nassim N. Taleb

Counterfactual explanations enhance interpretability by identifying alternative inputs that produce different outputs, offering localized insights into model decisions. However, traditional methods often neglect causal relationships,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Pouria Fatemi , Ehsan Sharifian , Mohammad Hossein Yassaee

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

Learning-based autonomous driving systems are trained mostly on incident-free data, offering little guidance near safety-performance boundaries. Real crash reports contain precisely the contrastive evidence needed, but they are hard to use:…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jay Patrikar , Apoorva Sharma , Sushant Veer , Boyi Li , Sebastian Scherer , Marco Pavone

Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Erfaun Noorani , Pasan Dissanayake , Faisal Hamman , Sanghamitra Dutta

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Nir Rosenfeld , Yishay Mansour , Elad Yom-Tov

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Emily Black , Zifan Wang , Matt Fredrikson , Anupam Datta

Counterfactual explanation methods provide information on how feature values of individual observations must be changed to obtain a desired prediction. Despite the increasing amount of proposed methods in research, only a few…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-19 Susanne Dandl , Andreas Hofheinz , Martin Binder , Bernd Bischl , Giuseppe Casalicchio

Counterfactual explanations study what should have changed in order to get an alternative result, enabling end-users to understand machine learning mechanisms with counterexamples. Actionability is defined as the ability to transform the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Enrique Valero-Leal , Pedro Larrañaga , Concha Bielza

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Can stated preferences help in counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices. The key idea is to use…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-27 Romuald Meango

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 He Li , Haoang Chi , Mingyu Liu , Wanrong Huang , Liyang Xu , Wenjing Yang

Counterfactual explanations have been a popular method of post-hoc explainability for a variety of settings in Machine Learning. Such methods focus on explaining classifiers by generating new data points that are similar to a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Joshua Nathaniel Williams , Anurag Katakkar , Hoda Heidari , J. Zico Kolter

Counterfactual explanations are one of the prominent eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, and suggest changes to input data that could alter predictions, leading to more favourable outcomes. Existing counterfactual methods…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Marco Montali , Massimiliano Ronzani