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Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is an effective framework for aligning large language models with human preferences, but it struggles with complex reasoning tasks. DPO optimizes for the likelihood of generating preferred over…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Darsh Kachroo , Adriana Caraeni , Arjun Prasaath Anbazhagan , Brennan Lagasse , Kevin Zhu

Time-Series Forecasting is a powerful data modeling discipline that analyzes historical observations to predict future values of a time-series. It has been utilized in numerous applications, including but not limited to economics,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Wadie Skaf , Arzu Tosayeva , Dániel T. Várkonyi

In recent years, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) has become an increasingly important issue in the field of machine learning for the development of more accurate forecasting models. In this study, we explore the potential of HPO in…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-29 Sang Il Lee

Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Olivier Sprangers , Wander Wadman , Sebastian Schelter , Maarten de Rijke

Time series models predict numbers; decision-makers need advisory -- directional signals with reasoning, actionable suggestions, and risk management. Training language models for such predictive advisory faces a fundamental challenge:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yanwei Cui , Guanghui Wang , Xing Zhang , Peiyang He , Ziyuan Li , Bing Zhu , Wei Qiu , Xusheng Wang , Zheng Yu , Anqi Xin

The hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) process is imperative for finding the best-performing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The automation process of HPO is characterized by its sizable computational footprint and its lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Ibrahim Shaer , Soodeh Nikan , Abdallah Shami

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) plays a central role in the automated machine learning (AutoML). It is a challenging task as the response surfaces of hyperparameters are generally unknown, hence essentially a global optimization problem.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Zebin Yang , Aijun Zhang

Recent research has shown an increasing interest in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for a variety of time series applications. However, there are three main challenges when using LLMs as foundational models for time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Wenzhe Niu , Zongxia Xie , Yanru Sun , Wei He , Man Xu , Chao Hao

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is important to leverage the full potential of machine learning (ML). In practice, users are often interested in multi-objective (MO) problems, i.e., optimizing potentially conflicting objectives, like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Joseph Giovanelli , Alexander Tornede , Tanja Tornede , Marius Lindauer

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-08 David Salinas , Jacek Golebiowski , Aaron Klein , Matthias Seeger , Cedric Archambeau

There is a clear need for efficient algorithms to tune hyperparameters for statistical learning schemes, since the commonly applied search methods (such as grid search with N-fold cross-validation) are inefficient and/or approximate.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-07 Luis Miguel Lopez-Ramos , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

Hierarchical forecasting (HF) is needed in many situations in the supply chain (SC) because managers often need different levels of forecasts at different levels of SC to make a decision. Top-Down (TD), Bottom-Up (BU) and Optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Mahdi Abolghasemi , Rob J Hyndman , Garth Tarr , Christoph Bergmeir

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has become the de facto standard for offline preference alignment of large language models, but its reliance on a reference policy introduces a critical tension. DPO weighs each update relative to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Suqin Yuan , Xingrui Yu , Jiyang Zheng , Lei Feng , Dadong Wang , Ivor Tsang , Tongliang Liu

While deep learning has achieved impressive performance in time series forecasting, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand its decision-making process for building trust in high-stakes scenarios. Existing interpretable models often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Ziheng Peng , Shijie Ren , Xinyue Gu , Linxiao Yang , Xiting Wang , Liang Sun

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Lukas Neubauer , Peter Filzmoser

Automated hyperparameter optimization (HPO) can support practitioners to obtain peak performance in machine learning models. However, there is often a lack of valuable insights into the effects of different hyperparameters on the final…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-27 Julia Moosbauer , Julia Herbinger , Giuseppe Casalicchio , Marius Lindauer , Bernd Bischl

This paper presents a robust hierarchical MPC (H-MPC) for dynamic systems with slow states subject to demand forecast uncertainty. The H-MPC has two layers: (i) the scheduling MPC at the upper layer with a relatively long…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Mohammad Reza Amini , Ilya Kolmanovsky , Jing Sun

Programmatic hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, such as Bayesian optimization and evolutionary algorithms, are highly sample-efficient in identifying optimal hyperparameter configurations for machine learning (ML) models. However,…

Space-Time Projection (STP) is introduced as a data-driven forecasting approach for high-dimensional and time-resolved data. The method computes extended space-time proper orthogonal modes from training data spanning a prediction horizon…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Oliver T. Schmidt

Hierarchical time-series forecasting is essential for demand prediction across various industries. While machine learning models have obtained significant accuracy and scalability on such forecasting tasks, the interpretability of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Shangqing Xu , Xinjie Tong , Xingyu Zhou , James Peters , Joseph Czyzyk , B. Aditya Prakash