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We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Oluwasanmi Koyejo , Joydeep Ghosh

The ill-posedness of the inverse problem of recovering a regression function in a nonparametric instrumental variable model leads to estimators that may suffer from a very slow, logarithmic rate of convergence. In this paper, we show that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-27 Denis Chetverikov , Daniel Wilhelm

This article introduces a new nonparametric method for estimating a univariate regression function of bounded variation. The method exploits the Jordan decomposition which states that a function of bounded variation can be decomposed as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Arnaud Guyader , Nick Hengartner , Nicolas Jégou , Eric Matzner-Løber

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

We consider the problem of adaptive inference on a regression function at a point under a multivariate nonparametric regression setting. The regression function belongs to a H\"older class and is assumed to be monotone with respect to some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Koohyun Kwon , Soonwoo Kwon

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

We introduce a novel uncertainty estimation for classification tasks for Bayesian convolutional neural networks with variational inference. By normalizing the output of a Softplus function in the final layer, we estimate aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Kumar Shridhar , Felix Laumann , Marcus Liwicki

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a multidimensional diffusion model with reflecting boundary conditions based on discrete high-frequency observations. We prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem in $L^2$-loss, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Marc Hoffmann , Kolyan Ray

Shape restriction, like monotonicity or convexity, imposed on a function of interest, such as a regression or density function, allows for its estimation without smoothness assumptions. The concept of $k$-monotonicity encompasses a family…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-09 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We consider priors for several nonparametric Bayesian models which use finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-19 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

This paper considers the posterior contraction of non-parametric Bayesian inference on non-homogeneous Poisson processes. We consider the quality of inference on a rate function $\lambda$, given non-identically distributed realisations,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-26 James A. Grant , David S. Leslie

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Judith Rousseau

This work studies nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the important case where the intensity depends on covariates, based on the observation of a single realisation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Matteo Giordano , Alisa Kirichenko , Judith Rousseau

In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a distribution parametrized by $\theta$ in a parameter space $\Theta$, over which a prior distribution $\pi$ is given. A Bayesian statistician quantifies the belief that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Sergiu Hart , Yosef Rinott

This paper proposes a novel non-parametric multidimensional convex regression estimator which is designed to be robust to adversarial perturbations in the empirical measure. We minimize over convex functions the maximum (over Wasserstein…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn , Jun Yan , Zhengqing Zhou