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Nonparametric Bayesian estimation in a multidimensional diffusion model with high frequency data

Statistics Theory 2025-08-12 v3 Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a multidimensional diffusion model with reflecting boundary conditions based on discrete high-frequency observations. We prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem in L2L^2-loss, which is applied to Gaussian priors. The resulting posteriors, as well as their posterior means, are shown to converge to the ground truth at the minimax optimal rate over H\"older smoothness classes in any dimension. Of independent interest and as part of our proofs, we show that certain frequentist penalized least squares estimators are also minimax optimal.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2211.12267,
  title  = {Nonparametric Bayesian estimation in a multidimensional diffusion model with high frequency data},
  author = {Marc Hoffmann and Kolyan Ray},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.12267},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

61 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Probability Theory and Related Fields