Related papers: Crises Do Not Cause Lower Short-Term Growth

Deep learning time-series models are often used to make forecasts that inform downstream decisions. Since these decisions can differ from those in the training set, there is an implicit requirement that time-series models will generalize…

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

Understanding causal mechanisms across different populations is essential for designing effective public health interventions. Recently, difference graphs have been introduced as a tool to visually represent causal variations between two…

The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises…

Models that explain the economical and political realities of nowadays societies should help all the world's citizens. Yet, the last four years showed that the current models are missing. Here we develop a dynamical society-deciders model…

This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…

Recent methods have been developed to map single-cell lineage statistics to population growth. Because population growth selects for exponentially rare phenotypes, these methods inherently depend on sampling large deviations from finite…

Modelling growth in student achievement is a significant challenge in the field of education. Understanding how interventions or experiences such as part-time work can influence this growth is also important. Traditional methods like…

We find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates vary depending on the state of the economic cycle. Our modeling approach incorporates a two-state Markov switching mechanism as a proxy for the latent credit cycle, helping to explain…

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively,…

This paper aims to study the impact of public and private investments on the economic growth of developing countries. The study uses the panel data of 39 developing countries covering the periods 1990-2019. The study was based on the…

Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices…

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…

Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly…

This paper addresses the challenges of giving a causal interpretation to vector autoregressions (VARs). I show that under independence assumptions VARs can identify average treatment effects, average causal responses, or a mix of the two,…

Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…

Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of…