Related papers: Crises Do Not Cause Lower Short-Term Growth
We study a self-reflexive DSGE model with heterogeneous households, aimed at characterising the impact of economic recessions on the different strata of the society. Our framework allows to analyse the combined effect of income inequalities…
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not…
This paper presents a novel nonlinear regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data, geared specifically towards situations with small effect sizes, heterogeneous effects, and strong confounding.…
A standard growth model is modified in a straightforward way to incorporate what Keynes (1936) suggests in the "essence" of his general theory. The theoretical essence is the idea that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the…
Numerous urban indicators scale with population in a power law across cities, but whether the cross-sectional scaling law is applicable to the temporal growth of individual cities is unclear. Here we first find two paradoxical scaling…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Causal emergence is the theory that macroscales can reduce the noise in causal relationships, leading to stronger causes at the macroscale. First identified using the effective information and later the integrated information in model…
We provide precise conditions for nonparametric identification of causal effects by high-frequency event study regressions, which have been used widely in the recent macroeconomics, financial economics and political economy literatures. The…
What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across…
We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of narrow banking in the context of stock-flow consistent models. We begin with an extension of the Goodwin-Keen model incorporating time deposits, government bills, cash, and central bank…
This study analyses the duration dependence of events that trigger volatility persistence in stock markets. Such events, in our context, are monthly spells of contiguous price decline or negative returns for the S&P500 stock market index…
Tropical cyclones have always been a concern for public authorities in the U.S., with a season lasting nearly half of the year. Using longitudinal data on economic growth and exposure to tropical cyclones, we provide new comprehensive…
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays,…
Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from…
Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…
I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…