Related papers: Crises Do Not Cause Lower Short-Term Growth
We explore the applicability of the causal analysis based on temporally shifted (lagged) Pearson correlation applied to diverse time series of different natures in context of the problem of financial market prediction. Theoretical…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
The paradigm of linear structural equation modeling readily allows one to incorporate causal feedback loops in the model specification. These appear as directed cycles in the common graphical representation of the models. However, the…
This paper introduces non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions to analyze the effects of different economic shocks. I argue that controlling for non-linearities between a large-dimensional dataset and the…
For non-randomized studies, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) can be used to identify and estimate causal effects from a "locally-randomized" subgroup of subjects, under relatively mild conditions. However, current models focus…
The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described…
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…
The present study applies observations of individual predictions of the first three releases of the US output growth rate to evaluate how the applied judgment affects prediction efficiency and accuracy as well as if judgment is persistent.…
One of the themes that have been approached more and more within the specialised literature is being represented by economic cycles. The analysis of these is very useful in the long term predictions, in finding solutions for the economic…
This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…
The purpose of this paper is to investigate if a country quality of governance moderates the effect of natural disasters on startup activity within that country. We test our hypotheses using a panel of 95 countries from 2006 to 2016. Our…
Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…
The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…
We show that a simple nonlinear differential equation (originally studied in the physics of disordered systems) is able to mathematically describe the global population growth over the past 12000 years. Different regimes of population…
Financial markets are interconnected, with micro-currents propagating across global markets and shaping economic trends. This paper moves beyond traditional stock market indices to examine cross-sectional return distributions-15 in our…
We develop a difference-in-differences framework to measure the persuasive impact of informational treatments on behavior. We introduce two causal parameters, the forward and backward average persuasion rates on the treated, which refine…
Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
I study a static textbook model of monetary policy and relax the conventional assumption that the private sector has rational expectations. Instead, the private sector forms inflation forecasts according to a misspecified subjective model…