Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions
Abstract
This paper introduces non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions to analyze the effects of different economic shocks. I argue that controlling for non-linearities between a large-dimensional dataset and the latent factors is particularly useful during turbulent times of the business cycle. In simulations, I show that non-linear dimension reduction techniques yield good forecasting performance, especially when data is highly volatile. In an empirical application, I identify a monetary policy as well as an uncertainty shock excluding and including observations of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two applications suggest that the non-linear FAVAR approaches are capable of dealing with the large outliers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and yield reliable results in both scenarios.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2309.04821,
title = {Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions},
author = {Karin Klieber},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.04821},
year = {2023}
}
Comments
JEL: C11, C32, C40, C55, E37. Keywords: Dimension reduction, machine learning, non-linear factor-augmented vector autoregression, monetary policy shock, uncertainty shock, impulse response analysis, COVID-19