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The record of solar activity is reviewed here with emphasis on peculiarities. Since sunspot positions tell us a lot more about the solar dynamo than the various global sunspot numbers, we first focus on the records of telescopic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 R. Arlt , N. Weiss

Estimating the amount of electricity that can be produced by rooftop photovoltaic systems is a time-consuming process that requires on-site measurements, a difficult task to achieve on a large scale. In this paper, we present an approach to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Daniel de Barros Soares , François Andrieux , Bastien Hell , Julien Lenhardt , Jordi Badosa , Sylvain Gavoille , Stéphane Gaiffas , Emmanuel Bacry

The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-11-20 L. Balmaceda , S. K. Solanki , N. Krivova , S. Foster

The sunspot number (SSN), the total solar irradiance (TSI), a TSI reconstruction, and the solar flare index (SFI), are analyzed for long-range persistence (LRP). Standard Hurst analysis yields $H \approx 0.9$, which suggests strong LRP.…

Space Physics · Physics 2015-06-03 Martin Rypdal , Kristoffer Rypdal

The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the Be-10 concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot…

In this paper Fourier Transform and Wavelet Transform are applied in case of recent 300 years of sunspot numbers to explain the solar cycles. Here basically parallel study of Fourier and Wavelet analysis are done and we have observed that…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-12-11 Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay , Debadatta Dash , Asish Mitra , Prasanta K. Panigrahi

Sunspot number series are composed from observations of hundreds of different observers that requires careful normalization of the observers to the standard conditions. Here we present a new normalized series of the number of sunspot groups…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-05-16 Teemu Willamo , Ilya G. Usoskin , Gennady A. Kovaltsov

A new method is proposed which allows a reconstruction of time series based on higher order multiscale statistics given by a hierarchical process. This method is able to model the time series not only on a specific scale but for a range of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 A. P. Nawroth , J. Peinke

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 K. Petrovay

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-03 I. G. Usoskin , G. A. Kovaltsov , M. Lockwood , K. Mursula , M. Owens , S. K. Solanki

The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-29 Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang , Qi-Rong Jiao , Jin-Bin Cao

A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-14 Hongteng Xu , Lawrence Carin , Hongyuan Zha

The sunspots and other solar activity indicators tend to cluster on the surface of the Sun.These clusters very often occur at certain longitudes that persist in time.It is of general interest to find new and simple ways to characterize the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-14 J. Pelt , M. J. Korpi , I. Tuominen

The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-05 Mercedes T. Richards , Michael L. Rogers , Donald St. P. Richards

The number of spots on the surface of the Sun is one of the best tracers of solar variability we have. The sunspot number is not only known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycles, but also to show variability on longer time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-06-27 Christoffer Karoff , Carsten Sønderskov Jørgensen , V. Senthamizh Pavai , Rainer Arlt

Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ilya Usoskin , Sami K. Solanki , Natalie A. Krivova , Theodosis Chatzistergos

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Patrick L. Noble , Michael S. Wheatland

The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-27 Reynan L. Toledo , Reinabelle Reyes , Christopher C. Bernido

We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-05-16 M. Falco , P. Costa , P. Romano

Due to the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) production in the generation mix, the knowledge of the PV generation capacity has become a key factor. In this work, we propose to compute the PV plant maximum power starting…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-12 Enrica Scolari , Fabrizio Sossan , Mario Paolone