Related papers: Iterative construction of the optimal sunspot numb…
Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…
This work deals with the problem of estimating a photovoltaic generation forecasting model in scenarios where measurements of meteorological variables (i.e. solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. A novel…
On a centennial timescale, solar activity was quantified based on records of instrumental sunspot observations. This article briefly discusses several aspects of the recent archival investigations of historical sunspot records in the 17th…
The solar photosphere and the outer layer of the Sun's interior are characterized by convective motions, which display a chaotic and turbulent character. In this work, we evaluated the pseudo-Lyapunov exponents of the overshooting…
Design and operation of a utility scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant depends on accurate modeling of the power generated, which is highly correlated with aggregate solar irradiance on the plant's PV modules. At present, aggregate solar…
Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KoSO) possesses one of world's longest and homogeneous records of sunspot observations that span more than a century (1904-2017). Interestingly, these observations (originally recorded in photographic…
A new approach to design of nonlinear observers (state estimators) is proposed. The main idea is to (i) construct a convex set of dynamical systems which are contracting observers for a particular system, and (ii) optimize over this set for…
In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our…
The atmospheric aerosol loading may significantly influence the performance in solar power production. The impact can be very different both in space (even in short distance) and time (shortterm fluctuations as well as long-term trend).…
Catalogs of the Zurich Observatory contain positional information on sunspots, prominences and faculae in late 19th and early 20th centuries. This database is given in handwritten tabular form and was not systematically analysed earlier. It…
The solar EUV irradiance is of key importance for space weather. Most of the time, however, surrogate quantities such as EUV indices have to be used by lack of continuous and spectrally resolved measurements of the irradiance. The ability…
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…
Project Sunroof estimates the solar potential of residential buildings using high quality aerial data. That is, it estimates the potential solar energy (and associated financial savings) that can be captured by buildings if solar panels…
We use archival daily spot coverage measurements from Howard et al. (1984) to study the rotational modulation of the Sun as though it were a distant star. A quasi-periodic Gaussian process measures the solar rotation period $P_\mathrm{rot}…
Recently Pop ({\it Solar Phys.} {\bf 276}, 351, 2012) identified a Laplace (or double exponential) distribution in the number of days with a given absolute value in the change over a day, in sunspot number, for days on which the sunspot…
Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
We develop a probabilistic framework for joint simulation of short-term electricity generation from renewable assets. In this paper we describe a method for producing hourly day-ahead scenarios of generated power at grid-scale across…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
Sunspot engravings and measurements in 1660-1676 are analyzed to retrieve sunspot area and heliocoordinates. Based on these data, we revise the Hoyt and Schatten (The role of the sun in climate change, 1997) hypothesis of long-lived…