Related papers: Marginalized particle Gibbs for multiple state-spa…

There is significant interest in learning and optimizing a complex system composed of multiple sub-components, where these components may be agents or autonomous sensors. Among the rich literature on this topic, agent-based and…

In recent years, various interacting particle samplers have been developed to sample from complex target distributions, such as those found in Bayesian inverse problems. These samplers are motivated by the mean-field limit perspective and…

Classical probability distributions on sets of sequences can be modeled using quantum states. Here, we do so with a quantum state that is pure and entangled. Because it is entangled, the reduced densities that describe subsystems also carry…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are important probabilistic tools for inference and learning in spatio-temporal modelling problems such as those in climate science and epidemiology. However, existing GP approximations do not simultaneously support…

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…

In particle physics, as in many areas of science, parameter inference relies on simulations to bridge the gap between theory and experiment. Recent developments in simulation-based inference have boosted the sensitivity of analyses;…

Topic models, and more specifically the class of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), are widely used for probabilistic modeling of text. MCMC sampling from the posterior distribution is typically performed using a collapsed Gibbs sampler. We…

Systems in thermal equilibrium at non-zero temperature are described by their Gibbs state. For classical many-body systems, the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm gives a Markov process with a local update rule that samples from the Gibbs…

Dynamic structural equation models (DSEMs) combine time-series modeling of within-person processes with hierarchical modeling of between-person differences and differences between timepoints, and have become very popular for the analysis of…

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective.…

We introduce efficient parallel algorithms for sampling from the Gibbs distribution and estimating the partition function of Ising models. These algorithms achieve parallel efficiency, with polylogarithmic depth and polynomial total work,…

Cosmological experiments often employ Bayesian workflows to derive constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from their data. It has been shown that these constraints can be combined across different probes such as Planck and…

In this paper, we develop a time-varying parameter based seasonally-adjusted Bayesian state-space model for non-stationary time series datasets where both the trend and seasonal components are present and it is the general scenario for most…

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

In this tutorial we consider the non-linear Bayesian filtering of static parameters in a time-dependent model. We outline the theoretical background and discuss appropriate solvers. We focus on particle-based filters and present Sequential…

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

This paper introduces a probabilistic approach for tracking the dynamics of unweighted and directed graphs using state-space models (SSMs). Unlike conventional topology inference methods that assume static graphs and generate point-wise…

We develop a general framework for piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers that enables efficient Bayesian inference in non-linear inverse problems with expensive likelihoods. The key ingredient is a surrogate-assisted…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these…