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Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…
Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…
For spatial and network data, we consider models formed from a Markov random field (MRF) structure and the specification of a conditional distribution for each observation. Fast simulation from such MRF models is often an important…
Annealing algorithms such as simulated annealing and population annealing are widely used both for sampling the Gibbs distribution and solving optimization problems (i.e. finding ground states). For both statistical mechanics and…
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…
State-space models have been widely used to model the dynamics of communicable diseases in populations of interest by fitting to time-series data. Particle filters have enabled these models to incorporate stochasticity and so can better…
This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…
A new dynamic latent space eigenmodel (LSM) is proposed for weighted temporal networks. The model accommodates integer-valued weights, excess of zeros, time-varying node positions (features), and time-varying network sparsity. The latent…
Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…
Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables…
We present Nested Sampling with Slice-within-Gibbs (NS-SwiG), an algorithm for Bayesian inference and evidence estimation in high-dimensional models whose likelihood admits a factorization, such as hierarchical Bayesian models. We construct…
This paper introduces a stochastic plug-and-play (PnP) sampling algorithm that leverages variable splitting to efficiently sample from a posterior distribution. The algorithm based on split Gibbs sampling (SGS) draws inspiration from the…
Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…
We propose a categorical data synthesizer with a quantifiable disclosure risk. Our algorithm, named Perturbed Gibbs Sampler, can handle high-dimensional categorical data that are often intractable to represent as contingency tables. The…
Dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) is widely used for analyzing intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Although many ILD have categorical (Bernoulli or binomially distributed) responses, currently available Metropolis-within-Gibbs…
Particle and ensemble filters are increasingly utilized for inference, optimization, and forecast; however, both filtering methods use discrete distributions to simulate continuous state space, a drawback that can lead to degraded…
To accurately reproduce measurements from the real world, simulators need to have an adequate model of the physical system and require the parameters of the model be identified. We address the latter problem of estimating parameters through…
Inference for streaming time-series is tightly coupled with the problem of Bayesian on-line state and parameter inference. In this paper we will introduce Dynamic Generalised Linear Models, the class of models often chosen to model…
The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that…
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several…