Related papers: Marginalized particle Gibbs for multiple state-spa…

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…

State space models (SSMs) are a powerful and widely-used class of probabilistic models for analysing time-series data across various fields, from econometrics to robotics. Despite their prevalence, existing software frameworks for SSMs…

We propose a semi-partitioned Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework for analyzing longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, within a marginal modeling paradigm. This approach addresses limitations of both aggregated and…

Particle Metropolis-Hastings enables Bayesian parameter inference in general nonlinear state space models (SSMs). However, in many implementations a random walk proposal is used and this can result in poor mixing if not tuned correctly…

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

Predictions for physical systems often rely upon knowledge acquired from ensembles of entities, e.g., ensembles of cells in biological sciences. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, these ensembles are simulated with parametric…

Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools which allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. There exist a considerable number of methods for performing inference in probabilistic…

When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…

Approximate Bayes Computations (ABC) are used for parameter inference when the likelihood function of the model is expensive to evaluate but relatively cheap to sample from. In particle ABC, an ensemble of particles in the product space of…

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…

The inadequate mixing of conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions presents a significant challenge in practical applications such as Bayesian inference and molecular dynamics. Addressing this, we…

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…

The K-Mean and EM algorithms are popular in clustering and mixture modeling, due to their simplicity and ease of implementation. However, they have several significant limitations. Both coverage to a local optimum of their respective…

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Model stealing (MS) involves querying and observing the output of a machine learning model to steal its capabilities. The quality of queried data is crucial, yet obtaining a large amount of real data for MS is often challenging. Recent…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…