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Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

Bayesian Neural Networks provide a principled framework for uncertainty quantification by modeling the posterior distribution of network parameters. However, exact posterior inference is computationally intractable, and widely used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Alfredo Reichlin , Miguel Vasco , Danica Kragic

We present a lightweight, flexible, and high-performance framework for inferring the properties of gravitational-wave events. By combining likelihood heterodyning, automatically-differentiable and accelerator-compatible waveforms, and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-02-13 Kaze W. K. Wong , Maximiliano Isi , Thomas D. P. Edwards

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We seek to achieve the Holy Grail of Bayesian inference for gravitational-wave astronomy: using deep-learning techniques to instantly produce the posterior $p(\theta|D)$ for the source parameters $\theta$, given the detector data $D$. To do…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2020-01-31 Alvin J. K. Chua , Michele Vallisneri

Second generation interferometric gravitational wave detectors, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, are expected to begin operation by 2015. Such instruments plan to reach sensitivities that will offer the unique possibility to test…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-03-17 Walter Del Pozzo , John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio

We advocate for a new paradigm of cosmological likelihood-based inference, leveraging recent developments in machine learning and its underlying technology, to accelerate Bayesian inference in high-dimensional settings. Specifically, we…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-06 Davide Piras , Alicja Polanska , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Matthew A. Price , Jason D. McEwen

We present in this paper a Bayesian parameter estimation method for the analysis of interferometric gravitational wave observations of an inspiral of binary compact objects using data recorded simultaneously by a network of several…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2008-11-26 Christian Röver , Renate Meyer , Gianluca M. Guidi , Andrea Viceré , Nelson Christensen

Estimating the marginal likelihoods is an essential feature of model selection in the Bayesian context. It is especially crucial to have good estimates when assessing the number of planets orbiting stars when the models explain the noisy…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Mikko Tuomi , Hugh R. A. Jones

Bayesian parameter estimation of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence (CBC) typically requires more than millions of evaluations of computationally expensive template waveforms. We propose a technique to reduce the cost of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-09-01 Soichiro Morisaki

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-03-25 Iván Martín Vílchez , Carlos F. Sopuerta

Weak gravitational lensing is one of the few direct methods to map the dark-matter distribution on large scales in the Universe, and to estimate cosmological parameters. We study a Bayesian inference problem where the data covariance…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-01 Martin Kilbinger , Emille E. O. Ishida , Jessi Cisewski-Kehe

We demonstrate the use of automatic Bayesian inference for the analysis of LISA data sets. In particular we describe a new automatic Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to evaluate the posterior probability density functions of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-11 Alexander Stroeer , Jonathan Gair , Alberto Vecchio

Estimating the parameters of compact binaries which coalesce and produce gravitational waves is a challenging Bayesian inverse problem. Gravitational-wave parameter estimation lies within the class of multifidelity problems, where a variety…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-05-31 Bassel Saleh , Aaron Zimmerman , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

We develop a computational framework to quantify uncertainty in shear elastography imaging of anomalies in tissues. We adopt a Bayesian inference formulation. Given the observed data, a forward model and their uncertainties, we find the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-07 Ana Carpio , Elena Cebrian , Andrea Gutierrez

The timing of radio pulsars in binary systems provides a superb testing ground of general relativity. Here we propose a Bayesian approach to carry out these tests, and a relevant efficient numerical implementation, that has several…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-07-27 Walter Del Pozzo , Alberto Vecchio

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-03 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Ollie Burke , Alvin J. K. Chua , Matthew C. Edwards , Renate Meyer

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

The problem of reconstructing the sky position of compact binary coalescences detected via gravitational waves is a central one for future observations with the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers, such as…

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

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