Related papers: Richardson's Forecast: the Dream and the Fantasy

This paper traces the global race to apply early electronic computers to numerical weather prediction in the decades following World War Two. A brief overview of the early history of numerical weather prediction in the United States, United…

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered…

In 1950 the first successful numerical weather forecast was obtained by solving the barotropic vorticity equation using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC), which marked the beginning of the age of numerical weather…

We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on…

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…

In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030. By NWP I mean initial-value predictions from timescales…

Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted…

This article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to Scientific Prediction. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about Experimental Philosophy of Science. As a first…

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view.…

In this paper we present the characterization of all the principal meteorological parameters (wind speed and direction, pressure, absolute and potential temperature) extended over 25 km from the ground and over two years (2003 and 2004)…

The artificial intelligence revolution is fueling a paradigm shift in weather forecasting: forecasts are generated with machine learning models trained on large datasets rather than with physics-based numerical models that solve partial…

This paper provides an outlook on the future of operational weather prediction given the recent evolution in science, computing and machine learning. In many parts, this evolution strongly deviates from the strategy operational centres have…

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

The advent of digital computing in the 1950s sparked a revolution in the science of weather and climate. Meteorology, long based on extrapolating patterns in space and time, gave way to computational methods in a decade of advances in…

With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…