A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030

In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030. By NWP I mean initial-value predictions from timescales of hours to seasons ahead. Here I want to focus on how NWP can better help save lives from increasingly extreme weather in those parts of the world where society is most vulnerable. Whilst we can rightly be proud of many parts of our NWP heritage, its evolution has been influenced by national or institutional politics as well as by underpinning scientific principles. Sometimes these conflict with each other. It is important to be able to separate these issues when discussing how best meteorological science can serve society in 2030; otherwise any disruptive change - no matter how compelling the scientific case for it - becomes impossibly difficult.