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We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong

We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

In this paper we address the question of statistical model selection for a class of stochastic models of biological neural nets. Models in this class are systems of interacting chains with memory of variable length. Each chain describes the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-19 A. Duarte , A. Galves , E. Löcherbach , G. Ost

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-17 Matthieu Gilson , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We consider a finite system of interacting point processes with memory of variable length modeling a finite but large network of spiking neurons with two different leakage mechanisms. Associated to each neuron there are two point processes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-21 Kádmo de S. Laxa

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Matthias Kirchner

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Lingjiong Zhu

In this work we perform a meta-analysis of neuroimaging data, consisting of locations of peak activations identified in 162 separate studies on emotion. Neuroimaging meta-analyses are typically performed using kernel-based methods. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2012-06-29 Yu Ryan Yue , Martin A. Lindquist , Ji Meng Loh

A central challenge in the computational modeling of neural dynamics is the trade-off between accuracy and simplicity. At the level of individual neurons, nonlinear dynamics are both experimentally established and essential for neuronal…

We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-31 Massil Achab , Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-Francois Muzy