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We define a numerical method that provides a non-parametric estimation of the kernel shape in symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes. This method relies on second order statistical properties of Hawkes processes that relate the covariance…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-03 E. Bacry , K. Dayri , J. F. Muzy

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Leigh Shlomovich , Edward Cohen , Niall Adams , Lekha Patel

Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Wenqing Liu , Xenia Miscouridou , Déborah Sulem

We introduce a novel and efficient simulation scheme for Hawkes processes on a fixed time grid, leveraging their affine Volterra structure. The key idea is to first simulate the integrated intensity and the counting process using Inverse…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Eduardo Abi Jaber , Elie Attal , Dimitri Sotnikov

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Christopher Chukwuemeka , Hojun You , Mikyoung Jun

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Leigh Shlomovich , Edward A. K. Cohen , Niall Adams

Humans and other animals behave as if we perform fast Bayesian inference underlying decisions and movement control given uncertain sense data. Here we show that a biophysically realistic model of the subthreshold membrane potential of a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-06-20 Michael G. Paulin , Andre van Schaik

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-08-26 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

In the present work, we introduce a general class of mean-field interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modelling the reciprocal interactions between two neuronal populations, one excitatory and one inhibitory. The model incorporates two…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon , Christophe Pouzat

Many properties of perceptual decision making are well-modeled by deep neural networks. However, such architectures typically treat decisions as instantaneous readouts, overlooking the temporal dynamics of the decision process. We present…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-25 Hayden R. Johnson , Anastasia N. Krouglova , Hadi Vafaii , Jacob L. Yates , Pedro J. Gonçalves

We consider a population of Hawkes processes modeling the activity of $N$ interacting neurons. The neurons are regularly positioned on the segment $[0,1]$, and the connectivity between neurons is given by a random possibly diluted and…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-29 Zoé Agathe-Nerine

We study a linear price impact model including other liquidity takers, whose flow of orders either follows a Poisson or a Hawkes process. The optimal execution problem is solved explicitly in this context, and the closed-formula optimal…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-10 Aurélien Alfonsi , Pierre Blanc

Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Michael Eichler , Rainer Dahlhaus , Johannes Dueck

Probabilistic inference offers a principled framework for understanding both behaviour and cortical computation. However, two basic and ubiquitous properties of cortical responses seem difficult to reconcile with probabilistic inference:…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-03 Laurence Aitchison , Máté Lengyel

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-28 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

We propose stochastic, non-parametric activation functions that are fully learnable and individual to each neuron. Complexity and the risk of overfitting are controlled by placing a Gaussian process prior over these functions. The result is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-01 Sebastian Urban , Marcus Basalla , Patrick van der Smagt

We consider a specific random graph which serves as a disordered medium for a particle performing biased random walk. Take a two-sided infinite horizontal ladder and pick a random spanning tree with a certain edge weight $c$ for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-19 Nina Gantert , Achim Klenke
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