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Forecasting costs is now a front burner in empirical economics. We propose an unconventional tool for stochastic prediction of future expenses based on the individual (micro) developments of recorded events. Consider a firm, enterprise,…
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…
In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on Chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity and the propagation of epistemic uncertainty through a queueing systems with breakdowns. Here, the quantity of interest is the stationary…
The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…
Surrogate modeling of costly mathematical models representing physical systems is challenging since it is typically not possible to create a large experimental design. Thus, it is beneficial to constrain the approximation to adhere to the…
This paper considers the posterior contraction of non-parametric Bayesian inference on non-homogeneous Poisson processes. We consider the quality of inference on a rate function $\lambda$, given non-identically distributed realisations,…
A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…
An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
The theory of sparse stochastic processes offers a broad class of statistical models to study signals. In this framework, signals are represented as realizations of random processes that are solution of linear stochastic differential…
Stochastic processes play a key role for modeling a huge variety of transport problems out of equilibrium, with manifold applications throughout the natural and social sciences. To formulate models of stochastic dynamics the conventional…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…
This paper presents a general approach to linear stochastic processes driven by various random noises. Mathematically, such processes are described by linear stochastic differential equations of arbitrary order (the simplest non-trivial…
Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…
In the context of uncertainty quantification, computational models are required to be repeatedly evaluated. This task is intractable for costly numerical models. Such a problem turns out to be even more severe for stochastic simulators, the…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…