Related papers: On the chaotic expansion for counting processes
We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
Polynomial Chaos Expansions represent a powerful tool to simulate stochastic models of dynamical systems. Yet, deriving the expansion's coefficients for complex systems might require a significant and non-trivial manipulation of the model,…
The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…
An explicit formula for the chaotic representation of the powers of increments, (X_{t+t_0}-X_{t_0})^n, of a Levy process is presented. There are two different chaos expansions of a square integrable functional of a Levy process: one with…
An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…
We propose a scalable framework for inference in an inhomogeneous Poisson process modeled by a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a…
In this paper we introduce a general stochastic representation for an important class of processes with resetting. It allows to describe any stochastic process intermittently terminated and restarted from a predefined random or non-random…
Continuous Time Markov Chains, Hawkes processes and many other interesting processes can be described as solution of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson measures. Previous works, using the Stein's method, give the…
Polynomial chaos is a powerful technique for propagating uncertainty through ordinary and partial differential equations. Random variables are expanded in terms of orthogonal polynomials and differential equations are derived for the…
Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
The conditional intensity (CI) of a counting process $Y_t$ is based on the minimal knowledge $\mathcal{F}_t^Y$, i.e., on the observation of $Y_t$ alone. Prominently, the mutual information rate of a signal and its Poisson channel output is…
Changing time of simple continuous-time Markov counting processes by independent unit-rate Poisson processes results in Markov counting processes for which we provide closed-form transition rates via composition of trajectories and with…
In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known L\'evy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of…
Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…
The stochastic parabolic equations with random potentials, driving forces and initial conditions are considered. The Wick product is used to give sense to the product of two generalized stochastic processes, and the existence and uniqueness…
We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…
A stochastic representation for the solutions of the Poisson-Vlasov equation is obtained. The representation involves both an exponential and a branching process. The stochastic representation, besides providing an alternative existence…
The intrinsic volumes induced by a stationary Poisson k-flat process inside a compact and convex sampling window are considered. Using techniques from stochastic analysis, more precisely calculus with multiple stochastic integrals and a…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…