Related papers: A Descriptive Method of Firm Size Transition Dynam…
The distribution of firms' growth and firms' sizes is a topic under intense scrutiny. In this paper we show that a thermodynamic model based on the Maximum Entropy Principle, with dynamical prior information, can be constructed that…
Economic transformation -- change in what an economy produces -- is foundational to development and rising standards of living. Our understanding of this process has been propelled recently by two branches of work in the field of economic…
Firms' positions in innovation networks determine their access to external knowledge, yet how these positions shape technological search behavior and influence productivity remains underexplored. We propose that central network positions…
This paper describes how a time-varying Markov model was used to forecast housing development at a master-planned community during a transition from high to low growth. Our approach draws on detailed historical data to model the dynamics of…
Accelerating the deep transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and forming new quality productive forces are essential components for China to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese Dream. After more than 40 years of…
Detailed empirical studies of publicly traded business firms have established that the standard deviation of annual sales growth rates decreases with increasing firm sales as a power law, and that the sales growth distribution is…
Job security can never be taken for granted, especially in times of rapid, widespread and unexpected social and economic change. These changes can force workers to transition to new jobs. This may be because new technologies emerge or…
Do firm dynamics matter for the transmission of monetary policy? Empirically, the startup rate declines following a monetary contraction, while the exit rate increases, both of which reduce aggregate employment. I present a model that…
In Hopenhayn's (1992) entry-exit model productivity is bounded, implying that the predicted firm size distribution cannot match the power law tail observable in the data. In this paper we remove the boundedness assumption and, in this more…
We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…
We study the almost sure convergence of the occupation measure of evolution models where mutation rates decrease over time. We show that if the mutation parameter vanishes at a controlled rate, then the empirical occupation measure…
We study an agent-based model of evolution of wealth distribution in a macro-economic system. The evolution is driven by multiplicative stochastic fluctuations governed by the law of proportionate growth and interactions between agents. We…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
We consider Markov jump processes describing structured populations with interactions via density dependance. We propose a Markov construction with a distinguished individual which allows to describe the random tree and random sample at a…
The long-run convergence of developing economies toward advanced countries exhibits robust empirical regularities, yet the mechanisms underlying technological diffusion remain insufficiently specified in standard growth models. In this…
This paper examines the dynamic behavior of city size using a distribution dynamics approach with Chinese city data for the period 1984-2010. Instead of convergence, divergence or paralleled growth, multimodality and persistence are the…
This work analyzes data on all public US firms in the 50 year period 1970-2019, and presents 18 stylized facts of their scale, income, growth, return, investment, and dynamism. Special attention is given to (i) identifying distributional…
Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…
Density dependent Markov population processes with countably many types can often be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, provided that the total…