Related papers: A Descriptive Method of Firm Size Transition Dynam…
Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…
China is the world's second largest economy. After four decades of economic miracles, China's economy is transitioning into an advanced, knowledge-based economy. Yet, we still lack a detailed understanding of the skills that underly the…
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped' growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with firm size,…
A pervasive trend in economic development is the shift from agricultural to manufacturing and finally to service economies. Because the type of employment associated with each sector influences natural resource use this global trend may…
Several tiers of social organization with varying economic and social disparities have been observed. However, a quantitative characterization of the types and the causal mechanisms for the transitions have hardly been explained. While…
A rich theoretical and empirical literature investigated the link between export diversification and firm performance. Prior theoretical works hinted at the key role of capability accumulation in shaping production activities and…
We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain framework for estimating population size from multi-list data, which allows directional interactions to be modelled and can accommodate absorbing lists, such as death records, or more general data…
A detailed empirical analysis of the productivity of non financial firms across several countries and years shows that productivity follows a non-Gaussian distribution with power law tails. We demonstrate that these empirical findings can…
Individual cooperative strategy influences the surrounding dynamic population, which in turn affects cooperative strategy. To better model this phenomenon, we develop a Markov decision chain based game transitions model and examine the…
Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…
Many psychological experiments have subjects repeat a task to gain the statistical precision required to test quantitative theories of psychological performance. In such experiments, time-on-task can have sizable effects on performance,…
We consider a time-slotted job-assignment system with a central server, N users and a machine which changes its state according to a Markov chain (hence called a Markov machine). The users submit their jobs to the central server according…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
We develop a tractable macroeconomic model that captures dynamic behaviors across multiple timescales, including business cycles. The model is anchored in a dynamic capital demand framework reflecting an interactions-based process whereby…
The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the…
Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…
In an era of rapid technological advancements and macroeconomic shifts, worker reallocation is necessary, yet responses to labor market shocks remain sluggish, making it crucial to identify bottlenecks in occupational transitions to…
There is an emerging consensus in the literature that locally embedded capabilities and industrial know-how are key determinants of growth and diversification processes. In order to model these dynamics as a branching process, whereby…
Standard micro-economics concentrate on the description of markets but is seldom interested in production. Several economists discussed the concept of a firm, as opposed to an open labour market where entrepreneurs would recrute workers on…
We consider finite-state time-nonhomogeneous Markov chains where the probability of moving from state $i$ to state $j\neq i$ at time $n$ is $G(i,j)/n^\zeta$ for a ``generator'' matrix $G$ and strength parameter $\zeta>0$. In these chains,…