Related papers: A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ i…
Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models for disease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the…
We develop a new methodology for the efficient computation of epidemic final size distributions for a broad class of Markovian models. We exploit a particular representation of the stochastic epidemic process to derive a method which is…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…
Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with…
The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…
The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…
Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
The initial transient phase of an emerging epidemic is of critical importance for data-driven model building, model-based prediction of the epidemic trend, and articulation of control/prevention strategies. In principle, quantitative models…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
In the framework of population dynamics, the basic reproduction number R_0 is, by definition, the expected number of offspring that an individual has during its lifetime. In constant and time periodic environments it is calculated as the…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…