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We establish asymptotically Gaussian fluctuations for functionals of a large class of spin models and strongly correlated random point fields, achieving near-optimal rates. For spin models, we demonstrate Gaussian asymptotics for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Tien-Cuong Dinh , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Hoang-Son Tran , Manh-Hung Tran

In 2010, Shiffman and Zelditch proved a central limit theorem (CLT) for smooth statistics of Gaussian random zeros in codimension one over compact K\"ahler manifolds. They raised the question of whether this result admits a two-fold…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Bin Guo

In this note, we improve some concentration inequalities for martingales with bounded increments. These results recover the missing factor in Freedman-style inequalities and are near optimal. We also provide minor refinements of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-31 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In this paper, we rigorously derive Central Limit Theorems (CLT) for Bayesian two-layerneural networks in the infinite-width limit and trained by variational inference on a regression task. The different networks are trained via different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-14 Arnaud Descours , Tom Huix , Arnaud Guillin , Manon Michel , Éric Moulines , Boris Nectoux

We consider a random variable $X$ that takes values in a (possibly infinite-dimensional) topological vector space $\mathcal{X}$. We show that, with respect to an appropriate "normal distance" on $\mathcal{X}$, concentration inequalities for…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-27 Timothy John Sullivan , Houman Owhadi

We study fluctuations of mean-field interacting particle systems around their McKean--Vlasov limit. Our main result provides a uniform-in-time quantitative central limit theorem for the fluctuation process, with convergence rate of order…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Solesne Bourguin , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

In this paper, we study a stochastic strongly convex optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods including the standard stochastic gradient descent method, its accelerated variant,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Jinlong Lei , Uday V. Shanbhag

We establish a universal framework for concentration inequalities based on invariance under diffeomorphism groups. Given a probability measure $\mu$ on a space $E$ and a diffeomorphism $\psi: E \to F$, concentration properties transfer…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Jocelyn Nembé

Motivated by the entropy computations relevant to the evaluation of decrease in entropy in bit reset operations, the authors investigate the deficit in an entropic inequality involving two independent random variables, one continuous and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-09-21 James Melbourne , Saurav Talukdar , Shreyas Bhaban , Murti V. Salapaka

We establish some quantitative concentration estimates for the empirical measure of many independent variables, in transportation distances. As an application, we provide some error bounds for particle simulations in a model mean field…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-19 Francois Bolley , Arnaud Guillin , Cedric Villani

We consider the problem of optimal transportation with general cost between a empirical measure and a general target probability on R d , with d $\ge$ 1. We extend results in [19] and prove asymptotic stability of both optimal transport…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Eustasio del Barrio , Alberto González-Sanz , Jean-Michel Loubes

In this work we study the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for the Euclidean norm of random orthogonal projections of vectors chosen at random from an $\ell_p^n$-ball which has been obtained in [Alonso-Guti\'errez, Prochno,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Samuel G. G. Johnston , Joscha Prochno

We establish inequalities for assessing the distance between the distribution of a (possibly multidimensional) functional of a Poisson random measure and that of a Gaussian element. Our bounds only involve add-one cost operators at the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Raphaël Lachièze-Rey , Giovanni Peccati , Xiaochuan Yang

The inferential model (IM) framework offers alternatives to the familiar probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. Allowing this uncertainty quantification to be imprecise makes it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Ryan Martin , Jonathan P. Williams

We develop a general assumption-lean framework for constructing uniformly valid confidence sets for functionals defined by moment equalities, referred to as $Z$-functionals. Our approach combines self-normalized statistics with a test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-11 Woonyoung Chang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We obtain moderate deviations theorems and exponential (Bernstein type) concentration inequalities for "nonconventional" sums of the form $S_N=\sum_{n=1}^N (F(\xi_{q_1(n)},\xi_{q_2(n)},...,\xi_{q_\ell(n)})-\bar F)$.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yeor Hafouta

This article explores combinations of weighted bootstraps, like the Bayesian bootstrap, with the bootstrap $t$ method for setting approximate confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable in small samples. For this problem the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Art B. Owen

We provide a Lyapunov type bound in the multivariate central limit theorem for sums of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed random vectors. The error in the normal approximation is estimated for certain classes of sets,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-24 Martin Raič

Consider a stationary, weakly dependent sequence of random variables. Given only mild conditions, allowing for polynomial decay of the autocovariance function, we show a Berry-Esseen bound of optimal order $n^{-1/2}$ for studentized…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Moritz Jirak

Operator-valued concentration inequalities are foundational to the analysis of modern high-dimensional statistics and randomized algorithms. However, standard oracle bounds are frequently limited in practice: they require explicit a priori…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas