English

Better bootstrap t confidence intervals for the mean

Statistics Theory 2025-08-21 v2 Computation Statistics Theory

Abstract

This article explores combinations of weighted bootstraps, like the Bayesian bootstrap, with the bootstrap tt method for setting approximate confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable in small samples. For this problem the usual bootstrap tt has good coverage but provides intervals with long and highly variable lengths. Those intervals can have infinite length not just for tiny nn, when the data have a discrete distribution. The BCa_a bootstrap produces shorter intervals but tends to severely under-cover the mean. Bootstrapping the studentized mean with weights from a Beta(1/2,3/2)(1/2,3/2) distribution is shown to attain second order accuracy. It never yields infinite length intervals and the mean square bootstrap tt statistic is finite when there are at least three distinct values in the data, or two distinct values appearing at least three times each. In a range of small sample settings, the beta bootstrap tt intervals have closer to nominal coverage than the BCa_a and shorter length than the multinomial bootstrap tt. The paper includes a lengthy discussion of the difficulties in constructing a utility function to evaluate nonparametric approximate confidence intervals.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2508.10083,
  title  = {Better bootstrap t confidence intervals for the mean},
  author = {Art B. Owen},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.10083},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:48:42.035Z