English

Confidence intervals in monotone regression

Statistics Theory 2023-05-24 v5 Statistics Theory

Abstract

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for a monotone regression function. It has been shown that the ordinary nonparametric bootstrap, based on the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE) f^n\hat f_n is inconsistent in this situation. We show, however, that a consistent bootstrap can be based on the smoothed f^n\hat f_n, to be called the SLSE (Smoothed Least Squares Estimator). The asymptotic pointwise distribution of the SLSE is derived. The confidence intervals, based on the smoothed bootstrap, are compared to intervals based on the (not necessarily monotone) Nadaraya Watson estimator and the effect of Studentization is investigated. We also give a method for automatic bandwidth choice, correcting work in Sen and Xu (2015). The procedure is illustrated using a well known dataset related to climate change.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2303.17988,
  title  = {Confidence intervals in monotone regression},
  author = {Piet Groeneboom and Geurt Jongbloed},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.17988},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

22 pages, 8 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T09:42:57.452Z