Related papers: Stock Prices as Janardan Galton Watson Process
We derive an upper bound for the annealed return probability for the simple random walk on supercritical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees. The bound decays subexponentially in time $t$ with $t^{1/3}$ in the exponent. It is valid for all…
This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order…
Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival…
We price European and American exchange options where the underlying asset prices are modelled using a Merton (1976) jump-diffusion with a common Heston (1993) stochastic volatility process. Pricing is performed under an equivalent…
In this article, we consider time-changed models of population evolution $\mathcal{X}^f(t)=\mathcal{X}(H^f(t))$, where $\mathcal{X}$ is a counting process and $H^f$ is a subordinator with Laplace exponent $f$. In the case $\mathcal{X}$ is a…
We consider a multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes, where the largest in magnitude positive eigenvalue $\rho$ of the first moments matrix is close to unity. Specifically, we examine the random vector representing the number of…
When the underlying asset displays oscillations, spikes or heavy-tailed distributions, the lognormal diffusion process (for which Black and Scholes developed their momentous option pricing formula) is inadequate: in order to overcome these…
The structure of return spillovers is examined by constructing Granger causality networks using daily closing prices of 20 developed markets from 2nd January 2006 to 31st December 2013. The data is properly aligned to take into account…
We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential…
We consider a model of random loops on Galton-Watson trees with an offspring distribution with high expectation. We give the configurations a weighting of $\theta^{\#\text{loops}}$. For many $\theta>1$ these models are equivalent to certain…
We investigate Galton--Watson processes in varying environment, for which $\bar f_n \uparrow 1$ and $\sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-\bar f_n) = \infty$, where $\bar f_n$ stands for the offspring mean in generation $n$. Since the process dies out…
We calculate the probability distribution of repetitions of ancestors in a genealogical tree for simple neutral models of a closed population with sexual reproduction and non-overlapping generations. Each ancestor at generation g in the…
A density-dependent branching process is a particle system in which individuals reproduce independently, but in a way that depends on the current population size. This feature can model a wide range of ecological interactions at the cost of…
The proposed model modifies option pricing formulas for the basic case of log-normal probability distribution providing correspondence to formulated criteria of efficiency and completeness. The model is self-calibrating by historic…
Stock prices are influenced over time by underlying macroeconomic factors. Jumping out of the box of conventional assumptions about the unpredictability of the market noise, we modeled the changes of stock prices over time through the…
Through in-depth analysis of ultra high frequency (UHF) stock price change data, more reasonable discrete dynamic distribution models are constructed in this paper. Firstly, we classify the price changes into several categories. Then,…
We replicate a renewal process at random times, which is equivalent to nesting two renewal processes, or considering a renewal process subject to stochastic resetting. We investigate the consequences on the statistical properties of the…
This dissertation reports work where physics methods are applied to financial and economical problems. The first part studies stock market data (chapter 1 to 5). The second part is devoted to personal income in the USA (chapter 6). We first…
In a reinforced Galton-Watson process with reproduction law $\boldsymbol{\nu}$ and memory parameter $q\in(0,1)$, the number of children of a typical individual either, with probability $q$, repeats that of one of its forebears picked…
With technological advancements and the exponential growth of data, we have been unfolding different capabilities of neural networks in different sectors. In this paper, I have tried to use a specific type of Neural Network known as…