Related papers: Stock Prices as Janardan Galton Watson Process
Nowadays, machine learning methods have been widely used in stock prediction. Traditional approaches assume an identical data distribution, under which a learned model on the training data is fixed and applied directly in the test data.…
A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.
We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock…
In this work, we study asymptotics of the genealogy of Galton-Watson processes. Thus we consider a offspring distribution such that the rescaled Galton-Watson processes converges to a continuous state branching process (CSBP) with jumps.…
We introduce a modified Galton-Watson process using the framework of an infinite system of particles labeled by $(x,t)$, where $x$ is the rank of the particle born at time $t$. The key assumption concerning the offspring numbers of…
Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between…
Let $(Z_n,n\geq 0)$ be a supercritical Galton-Watson process whose offspring distribution $\mu$ has mean $\lambda>1$ and is such that $\int x(\log(x))_+ d\mu(x)<+\infty$. According to the famous Kesten \& Stigum theorem, $(Z_n/\lambda^n)$…
We consider a random walk on a Galton-Watson tree whose offspring distribution has a regular varying tail of order $\kappa\in (1,2)$. We prove the convergence of the renormalised height function of the walk towards the continuous-time…
We analyze the interaction between stock prices of big companies in the USA and Germany using Granger Causality. We claim that the increase in pair-wise Granger causality interaction between prices in the times of crisis is the consequence…
Fitting generative models to sequential data typically involves two recursive computations through time, one forward and one backward. The latter could be a computation of the loss gradient (as in backpropagation through time), or an…
Mandatory emission trading schemes are being established around the world. Participants of such market schemes are always exposed to risks. This leads to the creation of an accompanying market for emission-linked derivatives. To evaluate…
This paper prices and replicates the financial derivative whose payoff at $T$ is the wealth that would have accrued to a $\$1$ deposit into the best continuously-rebalanced portfolio (or fixed-fraction betting scheme) determined in…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
We consider an interacting particle system on trees known as the frog model: initially, a single active particle begins at the root and i.i.d.~$\mathrm{Poiss}(\lambda)$ many inactive particles are placed at each non-root vertex. Active…
First, classes of Markov processes that scale exactly with a Hurst exponent H are derived in closed form. A special case of one class is the Tsallis density, advertised elsewhere as nonlinear diffusion or diffusion with nonlinear feedback.…
In this work, we study asymptotics of multitype Galton-Watson trees with finitely many types. We consider critical and irreducible offspring distributions such that they belong to the domain of attraction of a stable law, where the…
We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties…
We establish a variety of properties of the discrete time simple random walk on a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to survive when the offspring distribution, $Z$ say, is in the domain of attraction of a stable law with index…
Option pricing formulas are derived from a non-Gaussian model of stock returns. Fluctuations are assumed to evolve according to a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation which maximizes the Tsallis nonextensive entropy of index $q$. A generalized…
We classify the possible behaviors of a class of one-dimensional stochastic recurrent growth models. In our main result, we obtain nearly optimal bounds for the tail of hitting times of some compact sets. If the process is an aperiodic…